Thursday, 19 July 2012

6:50 Doncaster (19th July) Free Horse Racing Tips

Good Old Donny
An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 7f on good ground.

Ten two-year-olds, all raced bar a couple from influential yards. 

Pompeia, trained by Ralph Beckett, was relatively unfancied in the betting on debut when racing at Newbury over 6f. The well touted favourite, Just The Judge, won a shade cosily but Beckett's daughter of Singspiel made a great start to her career in the able hands of Jim Crowley. This chestnut filly is a compact type, not the biggest but an enthusiastic type who looked to enjoy her debut when held by just under one length. The winner could be a talent and those behind are held in some regard which suggests owner J L Rowsell has a decent juvenile on his hands. There is sure to be further improvement although it might be a mistake to imagine she will come on leaps and bounds. However, that initial display could set a standard which most of these struggle to attain. I was struck by this filly's love for racing and that passion goes a long way. A solid bet although there may be opposition.

Mick Channon fields Lady Marmelo who was many lengths behind Pompeia when making her debut. This bay filly was second string and was sent off at 40/1. To be fair this daughter of Duke Of Marmalade needed the run and there will be improvement but one to watch with what looks to be a near impossible task to beat the favourite.

Dixie Sky & Dusky Queen made their debuts in what could well turn out to be a hot Doncaster maiden over 6f. The winner could be a class juvenile, while the third and fourth have since run well. The first four were a number of lengths clear of the chasing field and to some extent it is difficult to assess where they stand. However, time may tell a good few winners will come from that race. Dixie Sky showed good pace although pressed much harder than Richard Fahey's juvenile. Dusty Queen is likely to turn the tables over this extra furlong. Nolan rode that day and a big price and tender handling suggested this February foal needed the run. At 90,000euro, more should be expected today.

Specialty, an expensive daughter of Speciosa, must be the apple of her trainer's eye. After a promising debut at Leicester, she was fancied to run a big race over course and distance. This April foal has a determined head-down attitude and a bold front-running style. I can imagine Fenton taking the lead. There didn't look to be much pace that day and the form is difficult to assess. The winner, Azrur, trained by Michael Bell, came from a long way off the pace and prevailed with no more than a hands-and-heels ride, which does bring question marks. Either the winner is high class or the others have some limitation or nothing beyond the norm. I can see a bold show but this could be a tough call if the major fancied are talented. A determined filly who deserves respect but others are favoured.

One horse which caught my eye is Testamatta. This daughter of Motivator is a January foal and a good-looking filly with size and strength. She is strong through the neck and, to be fair, hasn't been given a race on both starts to date. The form of her debut race at Newmarket has been franked. If she had started on terms that day would most likely have won. I was disappointed with how she was ridden next start. Botti had a shorter priced juvenile in the field and I wonder if they thought that was good enough reason to take things a touch - too - easy. In fairness, the main problem was running over an insufficient trip and with one thing and another this bay was just too far off the pace. She ran on with real purpose and this extra furlong could see substantial improvement. For the first time, she will be ridden with a view to winning, using that valuable experience with victory in mind. A superb purchase at 2,500gns. A lovely filly. I don't get a bee in my bonnet about many two-year-olds but I would be surprised if she doesn't make the frame.

Deserted, a home bred from Fittock Stud, is probably best watched although would have fair win and place claims in priced in single figures. It would take a supreme effort to beat the major fancies.

Michael Dods is a brilliant trainer and someone to respect with his debutants. Aerowyn Bryn is owned by Andrew Tinkler - a powerful combination. Dods' juveniles can go well at a price and could sneak into a place. Strangely, the stable often go better with their more speculative-priced horses than those strongly fancied. 

Conclusion: Unless there is something of a surprise I wouldn't look beyond Pompeia and Testamatta. The former trained by Ralph Beckett has a spring in her stride and the sort to relish a battle. A fair bet at favourite. Marco Botti's juveniles often improve with racing and they generally run their best race third start. Testamatta may have been a cheap purchase but she is a good looker and will enjoy this step up to 7f. After two so so performance where the learning curve was more important than the win, she will be primed today. I would be surprised if she isn't placed and if odds allow a decent each way bet. Specialty has a good attitude and will most likely bole along  in front and test the chasers. She may sneak a place. Aerowyn Bryn could hit the frame but probably best watched unless a big price.

HCE Mentions:

3:15 Brighton - Super Simon (If betting on Dow's juvenile he could touch bigger odds in-running as even with the application of blinkers may be outpaced over 6f)