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Sunday, 17 June 2012

6:40 Windsor (18th June) Free Horse Racing Tips

Jolly Rogered?
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 10y on good to soft ground.

A small field of six runners, two colts, four fillies, three raced.

Dansili Dual, a son of Dansili, out of Cherry Hinton Stakes (Group 2) winner Jewel In The Sand has run with credit on both starts but to some extent has probably disappointed connections as yet. Andrew Tinkler's juvenile went off joint favourite at Haydock over the minimum trip but was fairly put in his place by Cosmic Chatter. Once again, he went off favourite in a pretty ordinary-looking race at Bath. In truth, it resembled an auction maiden and I expected him to win. Although losing in a tight finish it didn't inspire confidence. In fact I would go so far to say that this £70,000 yearling purchase would need to have under performed last time to hold an edge against this field. It may have done just that but I certainly wouldn't be betting this youngster at short odds.

I am quite interested to see how Symboline fairs over this 5f. This bay filly, a daughter of Royal Applause, ran at Ascot on debut and wasn't particularly fancied but made a sterling effort behind Premier Steps. On balance, that performance encouraged me to have a bet on her at Leicester. It wasn't a run I will remember with fondness. All in all it was a poor effort but it wouldn't be a surprise to hear the stable hold her in some regard. Entries for two Listed and a couple of Stakes races give encouragement. Nothing much went right on that second start. After pulling down to the start, she was bumped and then off the pace. At the two furlong pole, there was a glimmer of hope but then nothing. Against a field of colts she plainly disappointed. This drop back to the minimum trip, handling soft ground, and experience could see a bold show today. I would be tempted to forget that last effort and if fair odds could be a decent bet.

The other form horse is *Little Miss Zuri. This daughter of Choisir was a relatively cheap purchase. She made her debut at Sandown, the leading pair, holding engagements at Royal Ascot. However, this chestnut filly was always struggling after a tardy start and although not pressed was a long way behind. Many of Sylvester Kirk's improve for their initial start and often go well on their second start but even with that hope something of a transformation is needed. It is interesting to note that she holds an entry for Windsor Castle Listed Stakes. Unless substantially backed I would take a watching brief.

Of the debutantes, Sky Garden makes most appeal. This daughter of Acclamation is by the talented mare Superstar Leo who was a gallant winner of the Norfolk Stakes (Group 2), Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) & placed in the Phoenix Stake (Group 1), Prix De La Abbaye (Group 1). A superbly talented two-year-old under the handling of William Haggis. This home bred from Lael Stable would be a costly purchase if going through the sales. This filly holds an entry for the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2), but connections are clearly realistic about her debut and taken this route. Haggis sent out a bright prospect in Odooj to win on his race course bow but the stable don't feature the best win rate. Their better juveniles can prevail but the stable have a much greater chance on their second start. I would rather watch and learn a little more.

The Haggis are additionally represented by Royal Aspiration, a colt by Acclamation out of the humorously-named Joan Joan Joan. Jim Crowley takes a rare ride for the stable and I would consider this a negative. Most probably second string and needing the run.

Why So Fast is a cheap purchase from a stable who rarely win on debut unless substantially backed. Unlikely.  

Conclusion: On first thoughts I wasn't particularly impressed with Dansili Dual. A well bred colt, he showed promise on debut before running to a moderate level at Bath. I wonder if he ran below expectations that day. I can't help but feel - even in this race - much better is needed. I still couldn't back this juvenile at short odds. Symboline gets my vote. She ran well on debut but disappointed at Leicester behind the impressive Artigiano. She was racing against a field of colts, too fresh going to the start, bumped in the early stages and then failed to see out the 6f. It is always a worry forgiving a poor run but I would be tempted to draw a line through that performance. Channon's juveniles has been in good form and it is intriguing why they have entered her for a couple of Listed races. This looks a fine opportunity to win and if fair odds all the more worthy of a bet. Sky Garden could go well if a talent but I am of the opinion it is better to let debutantes prove that point. The majority falter. Royal Aspiration, Little Miss Zuri & Why So Fast are best watched.

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