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Tuesday, 12 June 2012

2:50 Haydock (13th June) Free Horse Racing Tips

Laurie Pace
An EBF Maiden Fillies Stakes over 6f on good to soft ground.

The majority of this ten-strong field have experience. Quite an interesting race.

HCE Gold Subscribers will have their eyes on Fantacise trained by Brian Meehan. This daughter of Pivotal was forwarded as an each way selection when racing over course and distance. By all accounts that was a poor display, finishing seventh. We were confident of a big run, banking on a place effort and fighting chance of a win. I must admit her performance and that of favourite Newstead Abbey was somewhat puzzling. I am still of the belief she didn't run her race but today there will be no excuse. The only excuse I can offer is that the leaders went a stride too fast. This could easily be a point of contention - it may be wrong - but, at times, there is a thin line between a fair gallop and pressing a stride too far. Alternatively, it could be the case that this was simply a strong field. Meehan said: ''Fantacise was unable to build on her debut on this track next time out. Always works nicely at home and should go better this time.'' This filly showed a fair level of ability on debut - a race that has been franked. That promise suggested a big run second start, stepping up in distance. It didn't happen. A question mark about any performance is never good news and the only exception to that thought is a speculative price. If available at fancy odds, this chestnut filly may be value. I would suspect a better run will be seen today although if betting I would stick to small stakes.

From the same race, Dreamily finished one place ahead of Meehan's juvenile, a length to her advantage. This daughter of New Approach cost 100,000gns, quite a tall horse, who similarly showed pace before tiring in the final furlong. As with the above mentioned, that race is rather a puzzling affair and I would be tempted to take a watching brief.

Looking at the betting on the exchanges, John Gosden's American-bred daughter of Dynaformer - Chat - has attracted support [Tuesday, evening]. Owned by George Strawbridge, this February foal cost $200,000. Connections are no stranger to very talented juveniles. This will be Gosden's fifth two-year-old runner of the season. The stable unveiled Newfangled, who made a sparkling debut at Newmarket. In recent years, just under half of the stable's juveniles have been priced 13/2 & less on debut. These candidates featured fair win and place claims. In general, the stronger the market the stronger the performance. This filly could be something of a talking horse. Breeding suggests a greater test of stamina will be needed in time but worthy of respect. If starting favourite, I would anticipate a bold show. 

Of the other form horses, Mandy Lexi has finished runner-up on both her starts. This daughter of Dark Angel cost £17,000 at the breeze-up sales. Bryan Smart is an excellent trainer. She was relatively fancied on debut and unlucky not to win, just foiled by Fat Gary who held on by the skin of his teeth. That was over 5f on testing ground and there is little doubt this youngster needed further. Returning to Chester just over two weeks' later, even this step up in distance this looked a stride too short. This grey filly is quite lightly built and not the most attractive horse. She has a rather awkward style of running. Perhaps the course done her few favours because it is easy to become unbalanced. The winner - trained by William Haggis - looked a fair type but it is difficult to assess the merit of that race. The third, Dream Maker, ran a so so race next time at Redcar when dropping in distance - but hardly set the world alight. Smart's representative has a couple of respectable efforts under her belt and looks the type to appreciate softer ground. However, I feel more will be needed to win today. Watching brief.

Delores Rocket is a good-looking filly trained by Kevin Ryan but needs to improve a good deal for this step up to 6f. 

Another filly with modest form is Mixed Message. I'm a big fan of Ed McMahon's stable, especially with horses in the ownership of John Fretwell. This daughter of Kodiac cost £26,000 at the yearling sales but showed limited ability on debut behind a talented juvenile called Satsuma. Mixed Message wasn't fancied in the betting that day which may suggest she needed the experience, if not the run. This extra furlong is sure to benefit but it is clear ample improvement is needed to figure. McMahon's juveniles often go well on their second start and even though I have been slightly dismissive of her chances the best indicator will be the betting. The stable have a good strike rate at the course and Jamie Spencer is an unusual (perhaps significant) jockey booking. He rarely rides for the stable but features excellent statistics. If well backed, I would expect a big run and sound each way claims.    

Strictly Silca is worth noting, making her debut for Mick Channon. His juvenile string have been in fine form although he doesn't win as often on debut as is perceived. However, this daughter of Danehill Dancer cost 100,000gns as a yearling - a home bred for Aldridge Racing Partnership. The mare Silca Chiava was a talented two-yer-old beaten a short head in the Moyglare Stud Stake (Group 1), then finishing third, beaten less than two length, in the Cheveley park Stakes (Group 1). The betting is the best guide to this ones chance. Very few of the stable's debutantes win when priced over 8/1. This youngster is entered for the Moyglared (Group 1), so connections may have lofty aspirations. She will need to be something special to live up to her mother's success.

Conclsuion: A tricky race with a mix of experienced fillies needing to progress, while a couple of blue-blooded debutantes have something to prove. Chat has been well supported and there must be some confidence behind this juvenile. With Newfangled making such a sparkling debut for the stable at Newmarket, perhaps this filly has Royal Ascot on the agenda, too. The betting is key to her chances. If priced 5/2 & less I would expect her to win. If relatively fancied, she would hold fair place claims. It is never easy for any horse to win on debut especially against experienced opposition. That is the dilemma for those who wish to back such horses. A poor start would make this a stiff task. Strictly Silca is another to watch in the betting. If strongly fancied she is worthy of consideration although I feel most of Channon's two-year-olds improve for the run. If priced 13/2 & less, she has fair win and place claims. The form horses need to improve to win. Mandy Lexi has shown ability although she has an awkward style of running. She may sneak a place at best, unless this turns out to be no more than an average race. Fantacise is a difficult filly to assess after a poor show over course and distance. A question mark must lead to a forgiving nature. I can't help but consider Meehan expected a bold show last time. She will run her race today. I think she will put up a decent show but I wouldn't be tempted to bet unless speculative odds. However, that would then make me fear the stable have lost confidence. Probably best watched other than a small bet at a price. Dreamily is best watched. Mixed Message looks to have a tall order based on her debut at Catterick but there may be hope for improvement over this trip. The betting is key. If strongly fancied I would expect a big show and a fair each way bet. A funny race in ways but intriguing.