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Tuesday, 15 May 2012

6:40 Bath (16th May) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 11y on good to soft ground. 

A mix of form horses, debutantes, colts & fillies. 

This race is very much about Lucky Beggar, trained by Charlie Hills. This son of Verglas cost 22,000euros at the Goffs Orby Yearling Sales. A good, strong colt, he was given a hard task racing at Stakes level against the talented Bailey's Jubilee at Newmarket. A touch keen in the first two furlongs, he settled mid race and ran on with promise to finish second. The third, Dreamy Ciara, twice a winner but limited to some degree was well beaten, struggling after trying to win the race. Lucky Beggar looks the type to progress with racing and was all set to run at Chester. However, soft ground plus a wide draw were probably enough of a concern for connections to bypass that race. To all purposes this is a drop in class and there will be few easier opportunities.  This is the only runner for trainer and jockey, which is often a maxim thrown around by pundits. However, from my experience Michael Hills doesn't waste his time and this could be a significant pointer. I would look no further than this horse.

Marchwood has been placed on both starts to date. Trained by Stan Moore, he was one of three juveniles entered to run in the Brocklesby, which is often an indicator to a future winner. The stable do not feature the best win rate on debut but I expected a little more second start. However, this son of Assertive was put in his place by Judy In Disguise. I had reservations about that race because the majority of the field had been entered for plating class, which I considered a negative. The winner, trained by Bill Turner, has since been triumphant at Salisbury. I still expected to see Marchwood run a little better when competing in a four-horse race at Folkestone. In truth it was a two-horse race such was its limited nature but this bay colt was easily outpointed by Rated. Moore's juveniles haven't really hit form and although a fair-looking colt I feel he has a stiff task against Lucky Beggar and could well be a drifter in the market. (I certainly wouldn't bet early on the exchanges.)

Of the others with form, Schottische showed little on debut and is likely to be fantastic odds. Derek Haydn Jones is always worth noting with his juveniles on their second start because they have often been transformed, and a number have popped-up at huge odds. While I wouldn't bet on this horse I would most definitely not lay it. 

In a similar vein Baltic Gin looks hopeless but Saunders is a trainer to respect with two-year-olds on their second start. Both trainers are too easily disregard but punters but they are canny devils who often pull a rabbit out of the hat. 

Both juveniles are sure to be huge odds but don't be surprised to see one hit the frame. 

Of the debutantes, Devout is by far the most expensive at £19,000. This bay filly, a daughter of Holy Roman Emperor, is out of an unraced mare. Breeding suggests a stiffer test of stamina may be needed in time. Jamie Osborne is  fantastic trainer but the stable have been very quiet with their juveniles this season and feature a poor strike rate on debut . Best watched.

Mark Brisbourne is a miracle worker with his cheap juveniles and Honey Haven cost just £1,000. This daughter of Indian Haven is bred to want further and the stable feature such a poor strike rate with their debutantes that it is wise to take a watching brief.

The last pair hail from mighty stables: Hannon & Meehan. However, both are very cheap purchases. 

Lobelia cost just £500. The betting is the best guide to this filly's chance but breeding suggests this 5f will be on the sharp side. On a positive side, Meehan has a good strike rate at the course. I would take a watching brief.

Rebel Magic is a home bred trained by Richard Hannon. This daughter of Cockney Rebel cost £1,000. The mare was similarly owned by Green Pastures Farm, trained by Hannon, a winner on her first two starts. Sometimes these cheap purchases are simply the vendor sending their youngster through the sales ring - the cheaper the better - to be legible for this type of race. If not, they would have to go for fully-blown maidens, which generally take more winning. For that reason these ''home breds'' can be of interest. The betting is the best guide.

Conclusion: This looks a brilliant chance for Lucky Beggar to win. I can imagine connections will be disappointed if they don't bag a tidy win for this sturdy colt on his second start. If the opposition - especially the debutnates - are limited this son of Verglas could start at short odds.  The main danger for many is Marchwood. However, I am not keen on this ones form and I would not bet on this runner. The market is the best guide to the debutantes but all bar Devout are very cheap buys. Jamie Osborne rarely wins on debut and best watched while Lobelia and Rebel Magic hail from fashionable stables they have something to prove against a fair sort in Lucky Beggar.