Tuesday, 22 May 2012

2:15 Nottingham (22nd May) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Stakes over 6f 15y on good ground.

A mix of form horses & debutantes with one filly taking on the colts. The significant factor is that a number of horses are expensive purchases.

Well Acquainted ran a stormer in the Brocklesby, losing narrowly to My Boy Bill. It is strange how at one point the Brocklesby form looked decidedly weak. However, recent performances from Mayfield Girl, Lucky Lodge, Heavy Metal & Just Past Andover could well turn this original thought on its head. Clive Cox is a talented trainer who knows his two-year-olds and this son of Orientate is a good-looking colt. He went off favourite at Leicester finishing third. At the time, that may have seemed a rather disappointing effort but the winner, Lyric Ace, and second, Effie B, have proven to be talented juveniles. This better ground is likely to be more suiting and breeding suggests this bay colt - a January foal - will enjoy this 6f. He sets a decent level of ability.

Godolphin should always be respected because money is no object to their pursuit of talented juveniles. Gold Hunter, a son of Invincible Spirit, cost 220,000gns as a yearling. This bay colt ran over 5f on debut at Newmarket behind the highly regarded Pearl Ace, owned by Pearl Bloodstock Ltd who field a couple today. This youngster is said to be heading to the Coventry (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. The form of that first race is a little difficult to assess. The fourth, Mysterial, has since stepped up in distance finishing third, although well clear of the field. While Bentleysoysterboy was slightly disappointing when returning to Newmarket over 6f. It could well be the case that beyond the winner the form is fair. Gold Hunter travelled well for much of his debut and may have needed the run. Breeding suggests this trip should not be a problem. Saeed Bin Suroor featured an excellent strike rate with his fancied juveniles on their second start and should be respected.

Richard Hannon's two-year-olds have been going well this last couple of weeks and Janoub Nibras was fancied to run a big race on debut at Ascot on soft ground. To start favourite against a number of experienced, talented juveniles is probably  a fair reflection of the esteem he is held. This son of Acclamation cost 105,000gns as a yearling. He ran a superb third on debut, beaten by what could be a couple of classy juveniles. The fourth, Top Boy, has plenty enough ability to win a race or two. With being so strongly fancied in the betting this February foal was probably fitter than not but Moore gave him a considerate introduction. He must have respectable place claims at least.

Cuisine ran in the same race as Gold Hunter and was beaten a number of lengths. On paper this son of Holy Roman Emperor looks to have no chance. However, he cost £42,000, was backed on debut and also been entered to run at Stakes class. He never seemed to be travelling on debut and it could be the case he simply didn't perform. If backed it could be significant. 

Of the other form horses, Indian Affair is a big colt who has a tendency to pull. Stepping up to 6f may increase this characteristic. He is capable of winning a race at two but unlikely against this competition. 

Stand N Applaud is a horse with size and scope to progress with racing. He was unfancied on debut in a very messy race and although looks to have little chance he may run better than many imagine at huge odds.   

Betty Boo ran well on debut but is another best watched.

Of the unraced, it will take a talented juvenile to challenge those with race experience. 

Vandross hails from a stable which has few debut winners and best watched.

Pearl Bloodstock Ltd are a canny outfit and to some extent should know where they stand with the likes of Gold Hunter as Pearl Ace cruised to an easy victory. The majority of their two-year-olds have ability but most significant their better prospects are backed. 

Pearl Ransom has the first colours for Kevin Ryan and cost 62,000gns.

Pearl Reward is trained by Stuart Williams and cost $80,000 as a yearling. Williams has done well with horses in this ownership.

The betting is the key factor to their chances and is substantially backed they would have strong claims. However, both look weak on the exchanges and this would temper enthusiasm.

Mark Johnston is a difficult trainer to assess with his debutantes. Windhoek, a son of Cape Cross, cost 110,000gns. Few of the stable's representative win when priced over 12/1. 

Last but not least is Alan McCabe's Winged Icarus. The exploits of Caspar Netscher put this talented, amenable trainer on the map. This American bred, a son of Speightstown, cost 150,000gns. Owner, Mrs Wentworth, has been a loyal supporter of the stable and you would have to imagine this is one of McCabes highflyers. 

Conclusion: It will take a talented debutante to win this race and those with experience are the main candidates. Well Acquainted and Janoub Nibras set a fair level of ability - certainly capable of winning a race. Both have respectable win and place claims. Gold Hunter travelled like a good horse on debut over 5f and Saeed Bin Suroor has a excellent strike rate with his fancied juveniles on their second start. He has good win and place claims. It is worth watching the betting for Cuisine who looks to have little chance on form however if backed to single figures, I would expect a big run. At present, he is unfancied on the exchanges. Winged Icarus is a very expensive purchase for McCabe's stable and another who deserves respect. A number of expensive debutantes are worth noting in the betting and more importantly for the future.