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Monday, 23 January 2012

It's A Price Thing...

HCE Gold Tips  
On the back of Neil's request for more statistical-based insight from two-year-old horse racing I have found a number of pointers which make startling reading. 

* Data adjusted by a strict criteria from HCE.  

Kevin Ryan
A talented trainer of two year olds if you have ever seen one. However, from nearly 300 juveniles to have run on debut over the last number of years 70% of winners were priced 7/1 & less.

Mick Channon
It has always surprised me how this stable maintain the public perception that their two year olds are winners in waiting on their debut runs. In recent years they have attained only an 8% win rate on debut but most startling of all from over 400 runners only a handful won when priced over 8/1, in general, they were 11/2 & less.       

Amanda Perret
It's no surprise to see this stable struggle to win with two year olds on debut. However, in recent years 10 juveniles have been priced 13/2 & less. They all lost.

Peter Chapple-Hyam
Most trainers have a much greater chance of winning with two year olds on their second start compared with debut. In fact, it is almost an unquestionable truth for every trainer of juveniles. Peter Chapple-Hyam is one of the exceptions. His fancied juveniles have a much greater win rate than those on their second start, although their place chances are very similar. Richard Fahey comes from a similar mould, although his first and second time out juveniles have similar strikes rates.

Sir Michael Stoute
Often training the cream of the crop. But did you know that in recent years over 80% of his two-year-old debut winners have been priced 13/2 & less.  

This information is just the tip of the iceberg and part of our analysis for HCE Gold Tips (the best information being kept for our loyal subscribers)

Just a quick note to say Roy is back: 

All out to win