Friday, 2 December 2011

Catching Dumb Salmon With Neil's Trusty Fly...

Neil Casting Like A Pro 
We have been talking gambling psychology. Me & Neil, while making fishing flies. It's a passion of ours. While Neil crafted a skwala stonefly I attempted to spice up my life with a variation of an exotic may fly. Gambling,  it's a matter of using your head, then switch on the TV, crack open a tin of beer, cast out of the window to the nearest betting pool and hook a monster and weigh in the pounds. These recent blog post comments are actually better and more insightful than the original post, which is either a stroke of genius or perhaps I should start to worry my prose are somehow falling short of the mark. It is definitely the former as a combination of Neil's insight and our interest in psychology: how it may be used as a tool of gambling advantage clearly spoke volumes about the fortunes of Crystal Palace. Being a man who has a football in place of my brain I missed an opportunity to catch a dumb salmon with Neil's trusty fly. That juicy skwala was just too tempting. This is what he said....

Hi Jason

I enjoy your articles on psychology.

Another phenomenon that is more to do with the players than the gamblers, but can be used to get good odds. It's the "pride coming before a fall" situation, or After the Lord Mayors Show.

You've probably encountered it yourself playing pool for example - you do a fluke and get lined up for an easy black. Then you miss the black because you are still cocky from the fluke.

I've seen the same thing in football. I first noticed it many seasons ago when Middlesborough beat Man U in the premiership. Boro' then went on an appalling run of form and Man U couldn't stop winning. More recently do you remember Leeds beating Man U in the FA Cup? Following that Leeds victory they couldn't buy a win for ages.

After any upset, have a look at how often the underdogs then lose their next match, and the surprise losers then win. As a gambler you can use the psychological condition of the players to your advantage.

By way of example, lets see how Man U and Crystal Palace do this weekend. Fergie will give the hair-dryer treatment to his players who will step up, and Palace will be brought down to earth.
1 December 2011 22:31:00 GMT

Blogger HCE said...

Hi Neil,

Thanks for your comment and psychology theories. It is interesting how all of these factors come into play. I have little doubt that if researchers tested a number of hypotheses its evidence could transform our understanding of gambling at every level.Because the human mind works efficiently it is prone to cut corners and there must be so many situations of stimulus response where people (let's say on the betting exchanges) would fall prey to such understanding. It would be like a fisherman casting his fly to catch a dumb In fact you may need only one or two basic ideas to make a fortune. It is something which is worthy of thought because there must be so many opportunities. No doubt a number being used by those with that winning idea. How impressive would such a concept be to actually make money from such insight. I am sure gamblers around the world would be interesting in such a publication if it was available. It is disappointing that so little gambling research has been undertaken beyond psychopathology of gambling addiction. That seems to be the favourite topic of psychologist but it is a field or research which I am sure will develop in the next few decades. Research can seem painfully slow but is fascinating.I have written a few articles but they can be rather time consuming. I am interested in writing an article about positive psychology and trying to relate that to gambling. It will be interesting to see how Crystal Palace play after their recent victory. I am sure many of our readers will take note of your insight because it could give them a significant edge.

Thanks, again.

1 December 2011 23:38:00 GMT

Blogger Neil said...

So the question is, Jason : Did you lay Palace? :-)
2 December 2011 22:07:00 GMT

Blogger HCE said...


Oh dear! I am not much of a football man at all, Neil, and low and behold didn't even realise they were playing. Another lesson learned, hey. I can only hope some of our readers (the football fans) put their psychology/Neil heads on and thought hey presto that looks like a dumb salmon swimming after my trusty Well, Neil, as usual you are on form.