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Saturday, 29 October 2011

1:30 Newmarket (29th October) Horse Racing Tips/Result

An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 7f on good ground.

Not much form to go on but a couple of interesting two-year-olds. No Compromise was a surprise package on debut, when a 50/1 shot, running a big race taking third at Kempton. This daughter of Avonbridge is a relatively cheap purchase costing just 10,000gns as a yearling. Hughie Morrison's charge was sent off favourite at Salisbury, losing in a photo-finish. Perhaps, in ways, that was a disappointing effort because this filly was comprehensively outpaced for much of that race before plugging-on at the finish. It is fair to say that the leaders that day went a shade too fast. It certainly was a theme for the day that most winners came off the pace. No Compromise should travel better at Newmarket against a field of mostly debutantes and probably enjoy the uphill finish. However, she may find one too good.

Santarini showed little ability on debut when competing in a maiden race over 7f at Goodwood. This daughter of Lawman cost E110,000 as a yearling and was strongly fancied on her racecourse bow when priced 9/2. To finish last was a disappointment. However, the stable must have held high hopes for this juvenile because she was entered in the Lowther (Group 2) and the Fillies' Mile (Group 1). Those plans may well be significant factors which suggest a big run is expected today. If substantially backed, this filly would be a confident each way selection.

Of the others, Salacia - who may have been second string for Mahmood Al Zarooni - travelled well for much of the way when finishing 6th at Yarmouth over one mile, a race won by the stable. This drop back in distance, and the fact that Dettori is taking the ride, are positives. From a statistical point of view, this juvenile has fair win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less.

The betting is the best guide for assessing the chances of Heyaaraat and Keene Dancer. The former trained by Charlie Hills has fair place claims if priced 13/2 & less. While the latter, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, has very few winners on debut priced over 7/1.

Conclusion: No Compromise sets the form standard but may be vulnerable to a fair juvenile. Morrison's filly showed promise on debut but her limitations at Salisbury, although a battling type. She has win and place claims but may need this to turn out to be an average maiden to prevail. Santarini needs a transformation after  finishing last when fancied on debut. There are reasons to consider she is a capable filly with hopes of progressing to a higher level. After an absence of about three months her backers will need to take a leap of faith. If fancied in the betting, I would expect a big run. Salacia is another who could go well, dropping in distance and with experience on side. All three noted have win and place claims.

HCE: ''A fair debutante winner in the shape of Fugue at odds of 14/1. Gosden took both divisions of this race and this daughter of Dansili done well to master the gallant effort of Godolphin's Salacia who bolled along in front only to be beaten in the final furlong.  Dutch Diamond finished a remote 3rd beating No Compromise who came 4th.''