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Sunday, 22 May 2011

The Real Dark Horses (No, Darker Than That!)

HCE is big on two-year-old data. Knowledge is power - make no mistake. In fact early race declarations are so important to our understanding, we keep an archive of every entry just for reference. If you want to at least attempt to understand a trainer's thoughts (or jockey) then they are a great primary source of data - gleaning sometimes quite astonishing insight.

You may recall how I often note juveniles which have been entered at plating class. These juveniles are likely to have limited ability. On a number of occasions I have seen such horses starting at favourite for a maiden race. They have little chance of winning. They are favourite simply because people didn't take note they were entered at plating grade. They were forgotten. Overlooked. Call it what you may.

The same can be said of juveniles who have been entered to run at stakes, listed or even group class. The sole difference here is that these juveniles carry the hopes of being our equine stars of the future. Again, many don't take those engagements. That knowledge forgotten. That chance to gaining an edge - missed!

Considering we had the largest group-entered juvenile study in the world (published in the Weekend many years ago) we appreciate the worth of such data. We make it our job to remember - to understand. Our research tells us a high percentage of juveniles entered to run at stakes class - let alone racing at that level - go on to win in their two-year-old career. Take note of every piece of free information. It is too easy to simply disregard those gems of wisdom which note a trainer's thoughts.

Here is a list of recent lofty entrants - all yet to race - which are likely to have ability.

Peter Chapple-Hyam
Dick Bos

Tom Dascombe
Electric Qatar

Brian Ellison
Rano Pano

Richard Hannon
Mr Knightly

Howard Johnson
Twin Ivan

Brian Meehan
Hidden Passion

Dandy Nicholls
Prince Gabrial

David O'Meara
Tip Top Gorgeous

Tom Tate
Parc De Launay