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Tuesday, 26 April 2011

5:45 Wolverhampton (26th April)

A maiden for colts and fillies over this turning 5f 20y.

Nine juveniles compete but this is likely to involve four major two-year-old trainers.

Jeremy Noseda is a trainer to respect with his two-year-olds. Monnoyer, a colt by Dutch Art, cost 50,000gns, out of a 5f sprint winner. This chestnut is fancied in the betting and likely to go off favourite. In recent years, over half of Noseda's juveniles have a starting price of 13/2 & less for their debates. He attains a fair win rate with over half of these runners being placed. It is a positive note that Monnoyer has been entered to run in a stakes race and also the Phoenix Stakes (Group 1). The lilac Roy silks have seen many a victory with Noseda. In recent years Forgotten Voice, Waffle & High Alert have won on debut. In addition, this talented trainer features a good win rate at the course.The negative, as for all juveniles making their racecourse bow, it is never easy to win on debut. Inexperience can be costly. Monnoyer is one of the more likelier types but at restrictive odds is probably best watched.

It's quite unusual to see John Gosden with a two-year-old runner in April - the first in at least five years. Vinnie Jones is a home bred by Piccolo out of the mare Fen Guest who was trained by Rae Guest for C J Murfitt. Gosden features a fair win and place rate with his fancied juveniles on debut (very similar to Noseda). His win rate at Wolverhampton is 17% in the last five years, which isn't the most impressive strike rate. It is worth noting that the trainer's first juvenile runner of the season for many years has not been successful. This year may, of course, be different. However, I get the feeling few of his juveniles are natural sprint types and Vinnie Jones may struggle over this 5f.

Richard Hannon has been in fine form with his two-year-olds this season and Wolfgang is certainly one of the more interesting candidates. This bay colt (a cheap purchase at £15,000) was entered to run at Nottingham at the weekend but was withdrawn, probably due to fast ground. Much of the dam's family raced on dirt in the US so this surface may be a positive. Andrew Tinkler [owner] has invested a huge amount of money this season and now a familiar face within many stables. Reports suggest this youngster has been going well. Hannon has only an average win rate at the course.

Tom Dascombe has started this season on a positive note - firing in the winners. Lord Ali McJones cost 40,000euros. The key point about Dascombe's juveniles is the betting. The stable seem to have a very good idea of the capabilities of their youngsters and a weakness in the market is generally a negative.  However, of all these trainers here he is most likely to win with his fancied debutantes. In fact, this affable trainer is a rarity because he has a better strike with his fancied first timers than those running on their second start. If this bay colt has a starting price of 7/1 & less, it has fair win and place claims. If outside this betting guide, (10/1+) it's chances are significantly less.

An intriguing race but not the easiest to assess. The Noseda horse has claims but at restrictive odds is best watched. Wolfgang hails from a stable that must be respected. Lord Ali McJones would have fair each-way chances if fancied in the betting but at this moment is weak in the betting. If backed, it would be more encouraging.

HCE: ''A comfortable performance from Monnoyer who took his time to realise what was expected. Noseda's youngster could go on from this and Hanagan talked of him in glowing terms. With Wolfgang and Vinnie Jones showing little it may not have been the strongest contest. He looks a capable juvenile. Courtland Kings shows much more today after two nondescript runs. Dascombe's Lord Ali McJones was backed after being weak n the exchanges for much of the day. He travelled with the leaders and held every chance until the Monnoyer put the 2nd & 3rd in their place.''