Saturday, 30 April 2011

1:50 Thirsk (30th April) - Result

Quite a restricted auction maiden for colts and fillies over 5f on good ground.

A large field of 15 runners, where a high draw can be a significant advantage.

This flying five furlong suits more experience juveniles and a slow start can make winning hard work. Taking that in mind, and the nature of this race, debutantes will need to be pretty straight to figure.

Triggerlo, trained by Mick Channon, has run creditably on all starts and appreciated the drop from stakes class to a restricted auction race at Leicester. To be fair, beyond the winner, that looked a moderate race. This is a lovely-looking colt and taking everything into account he should be placed, holding a fighting chance of gaining that elusive first win. The downside is that although he has a fair level of pace he looks a galloper and doesn't have much in the way of a turn of foot. With a couple of speedy types in opposition he may even be slightly outpaced. It is likely the speed horses will struggle to finish and Triggerlo will gallop to the line. Channon has a decent strike rate at the course. And I can imagine connections will be doing their utmost to win. He has fair place claims and the most proven form horse in this field but he may be vulnerable.

The two speedsters mention above are Umph and Profile Star. Both have their limitations but they are the types to be suited by Thirsk. Cathy Gannon was booked to ride both Evans juveniles and for that reason I would consider Aljosan the better of the Evans pair. In fact, I am surprised Gannon's mount is such a big price (12/1 on Betfair) and could well be backed.

Profile Star has plenty of pace. He is a fair-looking sort, too. I can imagine Lee Newman will sit handy and try to keep a little bit for the finish. They may just go full throttle and try to sneak a lead. Either way this colt has pace and will definitely travel well for most. The crunch for Profile Star is whether he can last to the finishing line. That's the gamble. His form isn't that different to Triggerlo. At a price he has a fighting chance. If betting, I would be tempted to try and lay the stake at short odds in running because there may be takers. It was slightly concerning that he hung at Doncaster, although it didn't seem to stop him. An interesting candidate in his own way.

Of the debutantes, Farang Kondiew has been supported. Declan Carroll has trained a number of talented two-year-olds and it should be noted that this colt was entered to run in the Brocklesby, which catches the eye. He has trained juveniles to win on debut and previous Brocklesby entrants have shaped well in their careers. Even with these positives, it would be some performance to win this on debut simply because a number of runners have so much more experience. A slow start, inexperience, or connections intent on not pressing too many buttons all bring about concerns. If a truly talented individual he could win this with ease. However, that is a big question and at the price, although interesting, it may pay to take a watching brief.

A similar story can be told for Amadeus Denton. I am a big fan of Michael Dods and he is the type of trainer who often slips under the radar. His juveniles feature good place claims on debut. However, unless speculative odds I would rather watch.

Fayr Fall has experience but the Redcar race doesn't look the strongest form. If improvement is on the cards - which is can be with Tim Easterby's - then this gelding by Fayruz may have place claims.

Conclusion: A high draw and experience will go a long way to winning this race. Although a couple of the debutantes are interesting at the prices they do not seem to hold much value. Umph and Profile Star are likely to go from the front. They are both limited to some extent but they could well last well into the final furlong. Profile Star may go well at a price although equally vulnerable in the last 100m. Triggerlo is probably the most consistent. I can imagine connections will be disappointed if he doesn't win. He has fair place claim. He will be there about at the finish. But will he have just enough ability to win. It is a close call.

HCE: ''A big field but not too many got involved. Profile Star was well backed and showed his natural speed before hanging across the course taking Amadeus Denton wide in the process. After a stewards' enquiry he was called the winner. Dods' (2nd) drifted in the betting but ran a superb race on debut from a low draw. Fayr Fall ran on to take third. It may have been no more than an average race with a few who disappointed - noteably Triggerlo. Channon's youngster drifted alarmingly just before the off, especially on Betfair. It was such a weakness that you have to wonder if someone knew there was a worry about his performance.''