Wednesday, 30 May 2018

6:35 Ripon 2yo Racing Tips (30th May)

Horse racing tips
An EBF Novice Stakes race over 5f on good to firm going. Seven two-year-olds take part: five with racecourse experience and two debutantes from leading trainers.

Rockin Roy proved an easy winner on debut at Beverley when ''kept on strongly'' to beat The Great Heir who won next start when favourite. Archie Watson has done well with his juveniles this season (as he did last). This Irish-bred son of Fast Company looks a sharp breeze-up purchase at £36,000. He has to shoulder a 4lb win penalty for that first victory. By race type, this is a step up in class, which makes life a little harder. In fairness, he won well on debut. I wouldn't be in a rush to bet even money simply because one or two horses may improve. 

One horse who has plenty of pace but fails to get home is Gingersdunthelot. David Loughnane's charge started in the Brocklesby Stakes and outpaced in the Lily Agnes at Chester. Those races take some winning and he will find this a touch easier. However, he is very unlikely to figure here unless a few of these disappoint.  

Ann Duffield has been quiet with her juveniles this year. In fact, just looking at our database this is her first two-year-old to hit the track for 2018. The bookies have Miss Sabina priced 25/1. This daughter of Mayson cost £16,000 at the yearling sales. She wears a hood for this racecourse bow which is a negative. Also, she is the only filly in this line up. This local course for the stable is an ideal starting point. Duffield can win at big prices so not impossible although unlikely. 

Smile A Mile represents Mark Johnston's stable. They have been in excellent form - firing in winners - and this son of Slade Power was probably expected to shine on debut at Newcastle when an odds-on shot (8/11f). Clearly, connections must have been expecting something special. However, they we met with a dismal display when trailing home seventh. Over a month off course, there may have been an issue on debut. The betting should indicate this horse's ability. If strongly fancied it would bring further encouragement. 

Another trainer who doesn't lack for talented two-year-olds is Richard Fahey. A real wizard at getting his juveniles primed for their debut although some do need the run or simply lack ability. Silver Dust is a son of Clodovil and 57,000G yearling purchase. One to note. 

To add to the mix we have Life Of Riley and Mark's Choice who ran in the same race on debut at Hamilton. 

The former is trained by Karl Burke in the ownership of Ontoawinner syndicate. Both need little introduction to talented horses. Life Of Riley was relatively fancied on his racecourse bow. I think when these owners run a debutante at the course it speaks well of their regard. This son of Showcasing wasn't beaten far into fifth place. However, he may have ruined his chance by being much too keen. He was pulling for a couple of furlongs which must have taken the sting out of his tail in the final furlong. It wouldn't be a surprise to see this horse backed. If fancied in the betting, I can see a marked improvement. If weak, it would be a negative. 

Ruth Carr's colt, Mark's Choice, was one place ahead in fourth. He has show promise on both starts and not without a chance here. He was far too keen on debut at Doncaster. However, he was the polar opposite at Hamilton. I couldn't work out whether it was a bad ride or if the horse had his head in the clouds. He was so slow into stride and taking his time running off the pace. There seemed to be no urgency from man nor horse. He moved up with real purpose and drew level with the leaders before tiring in the closing stages. In many ways, it was a decent run because he must have traveled at some pace to even get competitive. It was a strange run. If starting on terms - and staying with the pack - you have to think this colt has some claim.   

Conclusion: An intriguing race. A small field of just seven horse which is a shame for each-way backers. Quite a few of these hold some claims. The favourite could be a talent but has to shoulder the win penalty. This is a step up in class and if one or two of these are improvers, I wouldn't want to be betting levels you devils. Smile A Mile is possibly a fair-class horse. The betting had to be significant on debut. There could have been an issue. If this horse is backed to short odds I would be convinced it has ability. If weak, if is best watched.  Silver Dust could go well for Richard Fahey. Life Of Riley and Mark's Choice definitely catch my eye. I have a feeling Burke's horse could be backed. If fancied in the betting has sound each-way claims. Mark's Choice is a funny one to weigh up. He has something but would want to be off the pace like last time. I would hope this horse drifts to big odds and may be worth a small each-way bet. On balance, this looks a tough race to find a winner because there could be four or five with a fighting chance if things go right. I would have to take a watching brief. 

1 comment:

Jason Coote said...

A detailed preview of this race.