Friday, 31 July 2015

Saturday Tipping Competition

It seems a long old time since the last Saturday Tipping Competition but with the turning on a new month we're back. Alan Winter won a tidy sum to take June's meaty prize, after showing sparkling form all year long. Can the man who brings Winter to Summer use his futuristic freeze gun to hinder those who dare to win some loot? I'm quite fearful, myself. Anyway, all those who want to join the Pro Comp, please pay your £10 via the Pay Pal button on HCE. For all the freebies, take the plunge. What's a tenner on the grand scale of things. The choice, as they say, is yours. 1PM Deadline. Good luck to all. 

1:45 Doncaster Racing Tips (1st Aug) UNISON ESSENTIAL COVER WHEREVER YOU WORK MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

Nothing too outstanding to consider but a few pointers for horses that could go well this season. Interested in seeing how Taurean Star goes here. Michael Bell has a pretty poor strike rate on debut which makes me wonder if this American bred son of Elnadin will be better second time out. It's a plus Jamie Spencer is on board and a Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) entry brings confidence. It wouldn't be a surprise to see this bay colt show up well. On balance, I'd take a watching brief. 

3:25 Newmarket - *Nemoralia is held in high regard by connections and done little wrong last start over course and distance. Not the biggest price at 7/4 but must go well. 

4:20 Goodwood - A very interesting maiden and a few well touted two-year-olds looking for this big purse of £16,000 to the winner. *Beast Mode could be capable of better. Mediciman has sound each way claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. Tigerwolf is high in the pecking order for Mick Channon although very few debutantes win priced in double figures and he's quoted on tissue prices at 25/1. Could still show promise.    

*NR
1:45 Doncaster - Taurean Star (best watched but could be a talent)
3:25 Newmarket - *Nemoralia (takes the beating) NR
4:20 Goodwood - Mediciman (ew claims if 13/2 & less SP) 

So irritating watching this race with Mediciman having unending problems in running. I know the pundits on TV only have a fraction of time to give their summary but blimey their comments annoyed me as much as watching the bloody race. It would have gone close with clear run and placed with ease. 

Thursday, 30 July 2015

6:10 Musselburgh Racing Tips (31st July) IRISH STALLIONS FARMS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

I'll keep this brief as I think I'm slowly going mad... Far too busy. One horse is worth noting here and that is Black Hambleton. Bryan Smart hasn't been engulfed with juveniles this season, compared with past, but he has a couple of talents with King Robert and Kentuckyconnection gearing up to race at Group level. This bay colt, a son of Dick Turpin, ran well enough on soft ground on debut at Hamilton behind War Queen. This February foal is likely to improve for that first start and appreciate this step up to 7f. The betting is very important here and I would take a watching brief if not priced 13/2 & less SP. I'm not saying he cannot win outside that guide but it would temper my enthusiasm. If fitting this criteria he should have good win and place claims. With only eight runners it could be sod's law one of two drop out to hinder three places. Even if there are two places I would still bet (no worries if you are betting on the exchanges). 

7:10 Bath - A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 161y on good to firm going. Jamie Osborne is always worth noting with his two-year-olds on their second start and My Best Song should be primed today. This American bred daughter of Songandprayer was a cheap buy, a $12,000 yearling. She ran behind the impressive Galileo Gold on debut at Salisbury. The winner is a talent who won the Vintage Stakes (group 2) at Glorious Goodwood the other day for new owners Al Shaqab Racing Ltd. My Best Song was eclipsed by one of today's runners Zeeoneandonly who certainly has pace to burn. She has a wide draw but likely to go to the front. My Best Song is likely to improve after an absence of over fifty days. The betting is very important. I would give this youngster decent each-way claims if priced 13/2 & less. If outside this guide, best watched.  

Black Hambleton 6th (didn't run race - better will be seen next time out)
My Best Song 9/2 2nd 

Wednesday, 29 July 2015

2:55 Nottingham Racing Tips (30th July) BREEDERS BACKING RACING EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Just a quick note on one or two as no time as usual. 

2:55 Nottingham - Dream Mover will go well for Marco Botti and connections Team Valor. I feel like cheering just thinking about their name. This son of first-season sire Dream Ahead made a lovely introduction and pretty fancied in the betting when third behind Melabi at Doncaster. He cost 160,000gns at the Breeze-up sales and will improve for that first run. Middleman is making his debut and held in some regard by John Gosden. This home bred should be respected. Both are priced about 5/2 [Wednesday evening] which doesn't look great value. I'd hope Dream Mover drifts a touch in the betting and if available at each way prices would be a decent bet. 

4:20 Goodwood - A giant field of eighteen two-year-olds. *Haggle ran well on debut in a class race and must go well for Luca Cumani and Bedford Lodge. I'd be looking for an each way price as there are a few challengers. Notary is a stiff opponent. Of the debutantes Lady Perignon is something of a talking horse for Andrew Balding. She cost 185,000euros at the yearling sales, racing in the silks of Mrs Fitri Hay. I must admit a good few of Balding's two-year-old debutantes have run poorly this season, which tempers enthusiasm. They can hit the mark if priced 10/1 & less so the betting is the best guide. This daughter of Poet's Voice is, perhaps, best watched but worth noting for future.     

2:55 Nottingham - Dream Mover (ew) if available 6/4 1st (was bigger early)
4:20 Goodwood  - *Haggle (ew) if available (NR)

Group Horse - Probably the best horses in the world

It's a funny thing but so many people don't realise what they have right in front of their nose. Always so busy searching for the one bet that will make a difference. You may have seen and read a lot of things about horse racing. You have visited many websites: some good, some bad, some...well it wouldn't be polite to say. It doesn't make much difference what people do in ways. I trundle on with my approach. I know it works. I have one piece of information that you need to consider. In fact, I would go so far to say that this website is as good as you will find. People detail what they know about a stable's top horses. They know what they are told. Grouphorse.co.uk details information that is worth its weight in gold. The best two-year-old fillies and colts in training. I'm telling you now - you will not find better information. Take a look at this entries page here. Jot down the best unraced juveniles, watch them...and then come back and tell me what you think. I don't need to wait for your reply. You will find winner after winner.  

Tuesday, 28 July 2015

Wednesday's Racing Tips

Just a few pointers. Seven two-year-olds races across the country with changing ground conditions. Looking for one wearing wellington boots and a poncho. Yesterday's tip Sir Roger Moore had no luck in running and is much better than seen. If going for a maiden next start, especially at an average track, will take some beating. 

Back to Wednesday: 

1:50 Redcar - Hope Cove was fancied to go well last start at Doncaster, when third. That turned out to be a pretty hot contest and this looks a lesser race to taste of victory. If available at each-way prices - a fair bet. Kingthistle hasn't been seen for a couple of months but ran with credit at stakes class in the Brian Yeardley at Beverley. Mick Easterby doesn't have many juveniles in his care but E A Brook's charge could well hit the frame at 10/1 [backed]. 

6:15 Leicester - Al Dallah is capable of winning a maiden. She ran well on debut, especially so second start and then was collard by a fair juvenile in William Jarvis' at Brighton. Cole's third franked the form with a win at Windsor the other day. This daughter of Footstepsinthesand must have each way claims if prices allow. Continental Lady is worth noting on debut for David Brown. This daughter of Medicean is one of two fillies entered for the Lowther Stakes (Group 2) and her stablemate won last start. Their debutantes can go well especially if priced 13/2 & less sp. If well backed it would be a sign of confidence. Certainly worthy of interest and could be a winner in waiting. 

7:50 Leicester - Philip McBride is a trainer I rate and Musical Taste has been relatively fancied on both her starts to date. This daughter of Makfi is owned by Qatar racing Ltd. I had a few quid on this horse second start and expected a big run but it didn't really happen. The race has turned out to be a fair standard but I do think this bay filly may have disappointed for some reason. This doesn't look the strongest of races and the stable have a very good strike rate (small sample) at this course and I would hope she can ht the frame and fingers crossed she wins. 

1:50 Redcar - Hope Cove  (ew) 9/2 2nd
6:15 Leicester - Al Dallah (ew)  3/1 3rd + Continental Lady (ew) if 13/2 & less SP 100/30 1st (bigger earlier) 
7:50 Leicester - Musical Taste (ew)  7/2 2nd     

Monday, 27 July 2015

4:55 Goodwood Racing Tips (28th July) KISH ARMSTRONG MEMORIAL EBF STALLIONS MAIDEN STAKES

Sir Roger Moore ran well on debut but disappointed when upped in class in the Coventry Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. This bay colt, a son of Zodiac, is very well regarded at home and after a spell on the sidelines hold good each way claims. Sterling Lines wasn't the most expensive yearling, especially racing in the silks of Mrs Fitri Hay who could add a couple of zeros on to the £22,000 and still go shopping for Gucci shoes. This son of Equiano is one of the better two-year-olds in Chapple-Hyam's stable and worth noting for the future. If backed to 13/2 & less could well make his presence felt. All in all, it's a pretty competitive race which isn't too surprising with almost £13,000 to the winner.  

Friday, 24 July 2015

1:55 Newmarket Racing Tips (25th July) ADNAMS SOUTHWOLD BITTER EBF STALLIONS MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

Muntazah  was very unlucky not to win on debut when seriously hampered. This son of Dubawi is a beautiful specimen with plenty of size and scope. It is often difficult to judge horses as they can look different when compared from one race to the next but this bay colt is one of the best looking two-year-olds I have seen this season. Barry Hills is doing a great job for his late son, John, and this youngster holds a couple of flashy group entries and must go well. Recorder is held in high regard for William Haggas and is another who will have support. Culturati has ability and makes an intriguing race. Muntazah would be an excellent bet if each-way prices are available.   

Recorder 13/8 1st
Culturati 8/1 2nd 
Muntazah 7/4 5th

4:05 York - John Quinn knows a decent two-year-old when he sees one and Reputation is likely to improve a good deal from his debut over course and distance. This son of Royal Applause wasn't fancied in the betting when behind one of today's runner Point Of Woods. I'd expect this bay colt to be more professional this second start and justify his Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) entry. He has been entered for a number of races which gives the impression they are searching for the appropriate race. If available at each-way prices I'd be hopeful of hitting the frame.     

Reputation 9/4 1st 

Thursday, 23 July 2015

2:20 Ascot Racing Tips (24th July) ANDERS FOUNDATION EBF STALLIONS CROCKER BULTEEL MAIDEN STAKES

Spanish City is well regarded by Roger Varian. This home bred chestnut son of Exceed And Excel is out of a Listed-winning mare, placed at Group 3. He has been given a Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) and Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) entry which suggest big plans. Although betting on debutantes can be like playing with fire I would take these as positives and expect a big run. If available at each-way odds is worth a small bet. Win or lose you will be hearing more of this colt. (Withdrawn 7/1)

3:40 Thirsk - Ribbing was sent off 3/1 joint favourite at Kempton when 4th in what looked a hot maiden. The winner is top flight, while the second horse has come out and won since. A chestnut filly trained by David Simcock. This American-bred daughter of Distorted Humor cost 85,000GNS at the breeze-up sales. She has received an entry for the Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) - the only 2yo group entry given by the trainer this season. I would expect an improved performance. It's slightly disappointing this race has seven runner and only two places for each way bettors if touching those kind of odds. However, I would be surprised if Ribbing wasn't in the first two. (2nd 5/2)

Wednesday, 22 July 2015

6:15 Doncaster Racing Tips (23rd July) TRENT MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

Just a quick note as I'm Mr Busy at present with one exciting venture and another. 

Interesting race. Dragon Mall went to Kempton with a big reputation but little went right that day for David Simcock's $105,000 yearling buy. 

He charged home as if his tail had been set on fire. 

My only regret is that this American-bred son of Blame isn't an each-way price else I'd rob a bank and make a quick detour to Ladbrokes with my swag. 

A fair bet if you can get 5/2 for a straight win and I'd be pretty much amazed if this bay colt doesn't run a supersized race. 

Jamie Spencer won't need his zinc supplement if this goes in. 

G'Day Aussie, Powderhorn & Zzoro may have each way claims at huge odds if you fancy a speculative bet. 

Dragon Mall is the major hope and if drifting to each way odds it's a strong bet. 

Sunday, 19 July 2015

1:55 Ayr Racing Tips (20th July) RACINGUK.COM MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (CLASS 6) (2yo)

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 6f on good to soft going.  Eight runners in this fairly restricted two-year-old contest weighted with regard to sales price - maximum £25,000. All colts/gelding bar one filly. Only a few pounds separate top to bottom weight. The majority lightly raced with a couple of debutantes. 

Run To Rio was fancied on debut but was either outpaced or inexperienced. This son of Captain Rio was the lesser fancied of two juveniles for Dods, when showing improved form over an extra furlong at Newcastle, caught on the line by the well-backed favourite. The form of that race looks fair for this level and on breeding the going should suit. 

Denton Hall field stablemate and debutante Dark Command. This gelding is a son of Kheleyf, purchased at the yearling sales by the trainer for 9,000GNS. Dods can do well with his debutantes and a good number are placed. This stable often go better on soft ground so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them go well. With Run To Rio showing such promise last start I would favour that individual. 

Dessert Rule wasn't fancied on debut for Jedd O'Keeffe. This son of Kheleyf was slow away and ran on in the closing stages when Ode To Evening cruised to a nine-length victory. Highbeck Racing are loyal patrons of the stable and although their juveniles are likely to progress second start this bay colt is best watched. 

Richard Fahey is a class trainer of two-year-olds and probably the best at priming juveniles to win on debut. Very few handlers come close statistically when comparing first to second start. Ingleby Valley was relatively fancied on debut at Carlisle over 5f. This chestnut son of Sahkee's Secret showed signs of inexperience in the paddock but ran well when playing second fiddle to Moondyne Joe. I don't think that was the strongest of  heats, which isn't a surprise when it was similarly a maiden auction. The leaders looked to go a stride too fast and fell in a hole and the first three came from well off the pace. This home bred should like the going and appreciate the extra furlong.

Richard Guest often slips under the radar, especially with two-year-olds, but he is a talented trainer and gives a very honest review on his website. Lydia's Place has served him well this season with three tidy wins after needing the run on debut. I must admit Dark Confidant caught the eye first start when sent off a 33/1 shot in what looked to be a pretty hot contest. This good-looking gelding, a son of Royal Applause, traveled with great gusto when ridden by Joey Haynes and had most in trouble until tiring in the final furlong. The third has a level of ability and the winner won on debut for Sir Michael Stoute and will be racing at Group class before long. Guest drops this gelding back a furlong and this is a drop in grade. This shorter trip may take the edge off his natural pace but he should run to line and by all accounts run a big race. 

Domineeno looks second string for Ingmanthorpe Stables. 

Keith Dalgleish fields a couple of runners including the only filly Candy Hill. This bay daughter of Jeremy has been fancied on both starts but disappointed on debut. However, she ran with more credit second start when losing to Mr Chuckles, who was 25/1. In truth, that looked a pretty moderate race. She steps back up to 6f. I would prefer others. 

Aussie Express cost £5,000 at the yearling sales. Equus Syndicate have done well with Glenrowen Rose, who won for the yard and far from disgraced when sixth in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2). Probably best watched unless seriously backed. 

Conclusion: This looks a fair race for the grade. Unless one of the two debutantes has ability [potentially both second string] this is most likely out of four horses. Candy Hill races against the boys and while she improved last start it was rather a motley affair. Possible. I'd rather watch. Ingleby Valley ran well enough on debut although the front runners went a stride too fast and the complexion of the race changed dramatically in the closing stages. This step up in distance should be a positive and the ground will suit. On statistics he holds respectable win and place claims. Run To Rio is a straightforward juvenile and put up a bold show last start when nabbed on the line. Must run well and hold every chance and a sound bet if each way odds are available. I was taken with Dark Confidant on debut. He looks a great buy at 4,000GNS. In some respects I would be more confident if running over 7f because he showed very good pace that day. You have to trust the trainer knows best and I do with Richard Guest. The testing ground should help and this bay gelding could well improve as the stable's two-year-old often do second start. If touching each way odds should go well. 

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6:10 Beverley - White Bullet has run well on both starts. Very few two-year-olds start their career at Listed Class. This daughter of Exceed And Excel wandered under pressure at Newmarket when stepping up to 6f. Kevin Ryan's charge should have won if keeping straight and by all accounts is a pattern winner running in a maiden. Unless disaster strikes - she will win. 

6:20 Windsor - Justice Lass is held in some regard by connections, racing in the familiar silks of Robert Ng. As noted on Group Horse, this daughter of Canford Cliffs held a Listed entry before making her debut at this course over the minimum distance. This bay filly ran on all too late, which was due to an insufficient trip and then ran in another hot contest when facing Ballydoyle, who was a narrow loser in the Chesham at Royal Ascot. David Elsworth must feel this 6f is the ideal for now after showing good pace last time out at Newmarket. There was no disgrace in finishing fourth. Little Voice is the major opponent but if making Justice Lass an each way bet - I'd take the challenge. 

 Couple ew trebles -
           
1:55 Ayr         - Run To Rio or Dark Confidant 3rd (11/2)
6:10 Beverley - White Bullet 2nd (1/8) Unbelievable 
6:20 Windsor - Justice Lass  1st 13/8 

                

Friday, 17 July 2015

7:25 Haydock Racing Tips (18th July) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Another long day so I won't give an in-depth review. An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f on good to firm going. Ten colts/geldings - no fillies taking the plunge although eligible. A few of these have shown ability: John Splendid, Cymric & Hairdryer. Andrew Balding's two-year-olds haven't been firing on all cylinders especially a number of debutantes who have been backed and run horribly. *Both Sides wasn't overly fancied on debut but ran a respectable enough race when finishing fifth over 7f at Sandown. This son of Lawman is out of a debut-winning mare who was highly tried including a narrow loser in the Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group 1), Curragh, Ireland.

The mare was trained by John Gosden racing in the familiar silks of George Strawbridge, this bay colt a sibling and home bred. 

The form of that race has been franked and this February foal didn't have the best of races: slowly away, outpaced, then kept on in the final furlong. 

With over a month off course it is likely this colt will be primed for his second start. It is encouraging to see Balding has given this horse a stakes race entry. He has been incredibly sparse on such pointers this season - a lot to do with their two-year-olds not showing an abundance of ability. However, I would take this entry as a positive sign which suggests to me they consider he is up to winning a race. 

The betting is important here. If backed to a single-figure starting price it would bring more interest. If priced 9/1 & less must have fair each-way claims. If very weak in the betting I'd take a watching brief. 

2:45 Ripon     - Sign Of The Kodiac [eachway claims] 3rd
6:10 Lingfield - Chief Entertainer [eachway claims if priced 13/2 & less sp] 4th [7/1] outside betting guide

*Both Sides NR

Thursday, 16 July 2015

Friday Racing Tips (17th July)

A busy day so not so much time to give an in depth review but a couple of races worth noting. 

2:40 Haydock - Quite a sizable field and a few juveniles which have run well or have something of a reputation. Edification is on a recover mission after a disappointing effort at Windsor. Blinkers first time bring concern. Laughton has been given a Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) entry for Kevin Ryan. This son of Acclamation was purchased privately for 8,000euro and recently sold at the breeze-up sales for 150,000euor. Fancied in the betting which brings encouragement. Karl Burke is a class trainer and Wayward Hoof could go well. This son of Equiano was purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales for 40,000GNS. It is worth noting this bay colt was fielded at Stakes class on debut and backed. He showed ability against more experienced/talented rivals but far from disgraced. He is another horse to hold a Gimcrack entry and only one of two for the stable.     

6:15 Newmarket - No strong views here but just wanted to give Luca Cumani's two-year-old debutante a mention. Beautiful Morning is a daughter of Galileo  out of a debut-winning mare who was Listed placed and Group raced. This bay filly cost a whopping 650,000GNS at the yearling sales. She runs under the ownership of Jon S Kelly. 

6:30 Pontefract - Mark Tompkins isn't the first trainer who springs to mind with talented two-year-olds but Jack Carter showed promise when making his debut at Leicester over 6f. This son of Medicean wasn't fancied in the betting but showed good pace, traveling with menace until fading in the final furlong. This January foal touched short odds in-running and his trainer spoke well of this youngster detailing that he would improve for that first start. The betting is important and if priced 13/2 & less SP I would consider this chestnut colt to hold strong each-way claims. If outside this betting guide, I would take a watching brief. Flying Pursuit is getting his act together and is another horse who must have respectable win and place hopes. 


Wednesday, 15 July 2015

2:10 Hamilton Racing Tips (16th July) IRISH STALLION FARMS EBF MAIDEN STAKES

A Maiden Stakes over 5f 4y on good to soft going. Eight two-year-olds: five colts and a handful of fillies. A quintet of lightly-raced juveniles. Take a look at these guys for great quality horse betting on the internet.  

Danzeb showed a glimmer of ability when finishing second at odds of 16/1. Ann Duffield's gelding looked in need of the experience but ran on in pleasing fashion when beaten without fuss by the experienced Hawatif. This bay son of Zebedee took his time to get into that race over 6f so this drop back to the minimum trip may have him on the back foot.However, connections have made an entry at Ripon over 5f, so it gives the impression it will suffice. The sire was a talented sprinter so it best to consider the trainer knows best. 

Quiet Reflection was engaged to run yesterday but withdrawn most likely with regard to the going. This daughter of Showcasing runs in the familiar yellow ad white silks of Ontoawinner syndicate who have a fine record with their youngsters. Katie's Diamond was sold to Qatar Racing Ltd & Barbara Keller after an effortless win at Redcar on debut before tasting victory at Listed class in the Empress Stakes at Newmarket. This bay filly has received a Stakes and Lowther Stakes (Group 2) entry, which suggest she has shown ability. 

Ticking Away is trained by David Brown who does well with his partnership for owner John Fretwell. This son of Monsieur Bond out of a winning mare wasn't overly fancied when sent of 12/1 at York over 6f. It is worth noting that was a strong race with very good prize money. This grey two-year-old has been off course over sixty days and now a gelding, which is probably the reason for his absence. It could well be the case expectations were higher on that racecourse bow with being a prestigious meeting. The stable have fair win and place claims when priced 13/2 & less second start. In what looks to be an ordinary race that duck egg shouldn't hinder his chances today.

Keith Dalgleish is represented by a couple of debutantes: Farkle Minkus & Forever A Lady. 

The former is a home bred son of Kheleyf in the same ownership of Stonefield Flyer for G R Leckie. This January foal is a gelding. 

*Forever A Lady races in the familiar silks of Straightline Construction Ltd who done well with Ko Cache among other talents. This bay filly is a daughter of Dark Angel out of a debut-winning mare who raced up to Listed class at two. She cost £27,000 at the yearling sales.   

The betting is usually a good guide for their debutantes and those priced 13/2 & less indicate ability. However, this stable doesn't feature the best strike rate. They tend to win or be unplaced. On balance, I would rather take a watching brief.    

Arjeed, *Freeze A Crowd & Madame Barker are best watched. 

Conclusion: An intriguing race. Danzeb is a decent-looking juvenile who could progress markedly from his debut at Carlisle where he was clearly ring rusty. On breeding this drop in distance shouldn't be a problem although it does bring slight concerns as he wouldn't want to be outpaced. On a stiff track and softer ground it shouldn't be too much of an obstacle and it is often a strength to finish a race. Interesting to see if Quiet Reflection races. If the going was a concern at Catterick, rather than wide draw, there may be a chance she doesn't take this race. Karl Burke and Ontoawinner know a decent juvenile and I'd expect a bold show. From a statistical point of view their two-year-olds can win at 10/1 & less. She will not be that price today. Ticking Away looks a poor relation with his duck egg. However, the form of that race is strong and it could well be the case he disappointed on debut. The stable have respectable win and place claims with juveniles on their second start priced 13/2 & less. With the gelding operation, stepping down a furlong, and feared connections I would expect this horse to hit the frame. Keith Dalgleish's debutantes bring interest but best watched unless exceptionally well backed. 

*NR - Freeze A Crown & Forever A Lady

Tuesday, 14 July 2015

2:00 Catterick (Wednesday) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES

An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 5f on good to firm going. An interesting contest with one or two well regarded juveniles. Five two-year-olds with form - the majority unraced. 

Copacobana has ability but been unlucky to have found a couple of stiff races. Her fourth over course and distance has worked out very well. After a few runs there is a chance this bay filly is regressing. After showing pace over 6f in nursery company, she weakened out of contention. Could have a claims but would need to be a big price and I have a feeling one or two debutantes will steal the show. 

Girl In A Bentley has tremendous speed over three furlong and looks the type to lay at shorter odds in running. 

Baby Ballerina is clearly held in some regard by Brian Ellison but she is likely to be outpaced and running on at the finish. Much bigger odds will be available mid race. 

John Quinn knows his horses and Al Zubarah cost £120,000 at the yearling sales racing in the familiar silks of Al Shaqab Racing. The betting will be the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less has respectable win and place claims. 

Three over debutantes are worthy of note - all have been given significant entries as detailed on Group Horse

Ann Duffield have been in good form with her two-year-olds and they can go well on debut although you get a mixed bag. Harmonic Wave is a daughter of Zebedee and cost £40,000 at the breeze-up sales for long-standing owner John Dance. A wide draw isn't ideal. This bay filly has been given a stakes race entry which may be a sign of confidence. 

Karl Burke is a superb trainer of juveniles and Ontoawinner syndicate have excelled with their string of horses. *Quiet Reflection catches the eye and I would be surprised if this daughter of Showcasing out of a winning mare doesn't have ability. She was purchased by the trainer for £44,000 at the breeze-up sales and interestingly given a stakes and Lowther stakes (Group 2) entry of late. The stable have three debutantes entered at this stage. Spigot Lodge can ready a juvenile for its racecourse bow and they can win at odds of 10/1 & less. This February foal could well be backed and it may pay to get your bets on early. Will appreciate an extra furlong in time but a live hope.  *NR

David Barron is very selective with his lofty entries and Lady Clair has been noted at the first entry stake of the Lowther stakes (Group 2). This daughter of Canford Cliffs is out of an unraced mare. Another breeze-up purchase at 55,000euro, in the ownership of White Rose Racing. Well drawn in stall four, this bay filly would have claims if priced 10/1 & less on debut. 

Summary: An intriguing race - particularly interested in Quiet Reflection for Karl Burke and the Ontoawinner syndicate. I've detailed this race early so readers can take note of the betting for this horse. I have a feeling she will be substantially backed. Lady Clair could well have ability and if seriously backed will go well. With Quiet Reflection being a non runner I would give Lady Clair a big shout.

Sunday, 12 July 2015

Monday's Racing Tips

6:10 Wolverhampton - Quite a restricted maiden auction stakes over 5f 216y. Couple of interesting horses. Company Asset had shaped with promise on her first two starts but ran below standard when fourth at Newcastle over 6f. There was no mention of this in post race reviews but it looked to me as if the saddle slipped, which may explain such a display. There is a chance she has just regressed. The tissue price of 2/1 [Sporting Life] looks short. Would make more appeal if a price. P J McBride is a talented trainer and someone I take particular note with his two-year-olds on their second start. Squash ran well on debut at Newmarket over 6f behind Lady Macapa, White Witch & Bahaarah. This daughter of Pastoral Pursuits will be primed for this race and definitely the selection. If touching each-way prices [unlikely] I would be interested. Presently about 5/2- 11/4 on the exchanges. Definitely value at those odds and high place claims. A wide draw isn't ideal but over 6f Luke Morris should be able to find a decent position. 

7:00 Windosr - A number of debutantes and not to much form on show bar Alizoom and High Speed. The former has a touch of ability although perhaps not the fastest juvenile and from a wide draw may be a touch outpaced before running on at the line. High Speed is something of an enigma - she hasn't helped herself. This daughter of Kodiac has ability but ruins her chance pulling and far too keen. Hills is dropping this bay filly back to the minimum trip and from a low draw could steal a lead. With Emerald Bay likely to be short odds - perhaps ring rusty - High Speed looks a fair bet if available at 5/1 or so. I would try to lay your bet at shorter odds in-running and then hope she holds on to her advantage. 

7:30 Windsor - A big field - with one or two who catch the eye. Destroyer is held in some regard by William Muir and a lovely, big specimen of a colt. This son of Royal Applause most likely needed his debut but showed ability second start before being outclassed in the Coventry Stakes (Group 2). This is more his level and from a low draw has each way claims. Grizzly Bear is another good-looking colt. Just looked at his odds on Betfair and 40/1 seems huge. Could well be backed down. He was slightly outpaced on debut and appreciated the step up to 6f at Newmarket. That was a fair race but he didn't do himself any favours pulling in the early stages and finished a respectable seventh. A wide draw isn't ideal and I just wonder if connections will be more interested in taking the handicap route as seen with Black Granite last year for The ABC Partnership. Henry Candy is a class trainer and he has been in exceptional form with his juveniles this season - especially on their second start. Noble Peace ran well on debt at Goodwood, when losing in a photo finish. Looks a good each-way bet if prices allow.     

Best tips:
6:10 Wolverhampton - Squash (very good win/place) 1st
7:30 Windsor             - Noble Peace (very good win/place) Unp 
7:00 Windsor             - High Speed (must touch shorter odds in running) 2nd (Didn't touch shorter odds)

Friday, 10 July 2015

Saturday Tips

I've been a bit quiet of late so I thought I'd just give a thought or two:

3:20 Ascot - Interest auction race over 7f. Knight Commander should improve for his debut and must have fair each-way claims. Bernie Boy would have claims if priced in single-figure odds. Any Guest is interesting for George Margarson. This colt held an entry for Royal Ascot and the stable can go well on debut although they have very few juveniles these days. Would bring more hope if backed. Quite a competitive race for the grade. 

4:00 York - Worth noting a few of these hold Gimcrack entries which give encouragement. Kevin Ryan does well here and I'd be pretty confident Mont Kiara has ability. Reputation is another to be given a Gimcrack entry. John Quinn's two-year-olds can be a touch hit and miss but worthy of note and could be backed from 12/1. 

4:20 Newmarket - The most interesting race for me. Ballydoyle is a fair nut to crack after a bold show at Royal Ascot. At such short odds the prices of a couple could be bigger than expected. Nemoralia ran well on debut and will be all the better for this step up in distance and primed. If priced 13/2 & less sp will have strong each-way claims. It may be priced outside this price guide with the odds-on shot but I'd stick to the basics. Quite interested in Justice Lass at 20/1. She is well regarded by connections and showed a touch of ability over 5f. This step up to 7f could see a transformation. Elsworth does well at Newmarket and Spencer is a good jockey booking. Could well be backed from big odds and may well sneak into the frame with the hope of more. If touching huge odds on the exchanges I'd definitely have a few quid on and hope she's backed. 

Main Tips:

4:20 Newmarket - Nemoralia (13/2 & less SP only) Each-way 2nd

Speculative Tips:

4:20 Newmarket - Justice Lass 20/1 Each-way 4th



Thursday, 2 July 2015

Meet the 9 - 5 Gamblers

An old story originally published in BBC News Magazine by Denis Winterman, 2005.

Forget those ideas about card sharps and hustlers, a new breed of white-collar gambler is using statistics and the power of the internet to turn a profit. Welcome to gambling as a career option.


Despite the stereotypes of smoke-filled betting shops and glitzy Mayfair casinos, gambling is not what it once was.


The abolition of betting tax for punters in 2001 and the growth of internet gambling have revolutionised the industry and opened the door to a new breed of gambler, who is choosing it as a career.

Matthew Benham, managing director of Smartodds, had placed just a handful of bets in his life before he became a professional gambler last year. He was a City trader for eight years before setting up his company, which bets exclusively on football.


Suspicion


The 36-year-old employs 13 full-time staff, mainly made up of mathematicians and statisticians. He also has 25 part-time employees around the world who collate data on their country's league. Once the analysis is done, he and just one other colleague decide what bets to place.


"After leaving my job I was looking for something new," he says. "I have always been into football and I noticed betting on games was really taking off. A lot of what I did in the City feeds into what I do now. I use the spreadsheets and financial models I did as a trader to assess odds.


"Five years ago professional gambling was hard work, but times have changed. With the internet it is much easier, from getting all the data to analyse a bet to placing it.


"I know more and more people who are taking it up full time and it is becoming a legitimate career choice. Some people are still suspicious of what I do and expect me to carry round suitcases full of cash."


Benham says it is his unemotional attitude towards gambling that makes him successful - he makes a profit, although declines to say how much.


"I never bet for fun, it is purely a job," he says. "You have to be unemotional because if you do it for the thrill you might not make sensible decisions."


There are no figures for how many people gamble professionally, but the money staked in all gambling style activities rose to £63.8bn in 2002-03, according to the government.


Dangerous passion


Politics graduate Paul Motty, 32, worked in the betting industry after school but left in 1997 to go to university because there were few prospects and full-time punting was too difficult. But after the explosion of internet betting sites he became a full-time gambler last year.


"The internet has changed the whole industry," he says. "The key to being a good gambler is research. It used to take days hunched over the papers to research a bet, now it takes minutes.


"Gambling is losing its seedy image. It is a massive global industry and doing it professionally is now a viable career. Effectively, it is just stock broking."



Taking a punt


£50 - What six out of 10 Britons spend a month on gambling


£20 - Average spend per customer at bingo on one night


£2.49 - What average household spends on Saturday's Lotto draw


He knows more and more people who are taking it up professionally and they are mainly young.


"Younger people are computer literate and use internet sites. For us gambling doesn't have the same stigma, it is a job and we set ourselves strict limits," he says.



Experts agree changes in the industry have made it more feasible to turn a punt into profit - but say it is not an easy way to make money.


"There has always been scope for smart people, with sufficient time to invest, to make it a full-time job of gambling," said Dr David Forrest, reader in economics at the Centre for Gambling at the University of Salford.


"But until recently winning didn't always convert into high returns because the taxman and bookmaker took a cut. Now it is more feasible that your time will deliver a positive financial outcome."


The university runs a degree in business and gambling studies and for the first time last year a student left to become a professional gambler after graduating.


Dedication


"You have to be very dedicated - it is not an easy job," says Dr Forrest. "That's the mistake some people make."


Gordon House knows just how many people can't cope. The UK's only charity offering residential treatment programmes for gambling addicts, it has seen a huge increase in inquiries in recent years and places are massively oversubscribed.


Managing director Faith Freestone says there is a potential risk for anyone who gambles. "Professional gamblers talk about being in control but the problems start when gambling controls you," she says.


Despite his success Motty says he would not advise anyone to take it up.


"You have to take the emotion and passion out of it to be a good gambler and a lot of people just aren't able to do that."