2:30 Ayr (15th July ) Free Horse Racing Tips

Sorry Alan
A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 6f on good to firm ground.  Just four runners: three raced, one debutante. Quite an interesting contest with a couple of fair sorts for this restricted race type. 

Broadcaster showed limited ability on debut when running over 7f at Haydock, finishing second from last. By all accounts that was a strong race with the winner placed at Group 2 level next start, while the second and fourth have both proven victorious. This son of Jeremy could well have disappointed on his first start because he showed big improvement when dropping down a furlong at Newcastle. This youngster was purchased and owned by John Fretwell for £39,000. His trainer, Ed McMahon, is a talent whose juveniles often slip under the radar. Few pundits appreciate his outstanding win and place statistics on their seconds start and that was certainly the case with this April foal. The betting indicated connections fancied their chances and from leaving the stalls it was clear he would be a major player. I was struck by this handsome bay colt who I didn't really notice [physically] when making his race course bow. It will be a surprise if he isn't the best looking in this field. In many ways Sean Levey [jockey] may have sent his charge to the front a little early because he power clear - touching short odds in-running - only to be collared in the closing stages. In fairness, the winner, Lily Rules, is a strong finisher and a decent juvenile for that grade so he may have been on a hiding to nothing whatever tactic he employed. However, Levey has been replaced by Graham Gibbons, which may suggest Mr Fretwell wasn't best pleased. This horse sets a fair standard and will take the beating. 

Another of my favourite trainers - a stable which have won me a lot of money in my time - is that of Mrs K Burke (Karl is set to regain his licence in the next few weeks). Ticking Katie is owned by Ontoawinner who are a great syndicate and a name we have promoted for a number of years. This daughter of Baltic King needed the run when making her debut at Haydock. It is important to always watch the betting of their two-year-olds on their second start because when the money flows a big run is usually forthcoming. There was a substantial gambler on this filly [a superb yearling buy at 4,000gns] and there were a few sad faces when Karen Tutty hammered their wallets to the wall with her first two-year-old winner. There was nothing wrong with that performance and another day of the week we would have seen a comfortable win. Ticking Katie has a fighting chance against the colts.

I must admit that I often look at Alan Berry's few two-year-old debutantes and quickly come to the conclusion: ''You can't win''. In truth, his general standard of horse is poor and they are often left trailing by the time the opposition have covered a furlong. However, I was shocked by Straight Gin when he made his debut in a big-money Selling Stakes at Musselburgh. I don't mind saying I laid this horse quite early on the exchanges for a large sun of money and then noticed this son of Major Cadeaux had been well backed. Considering I had bet thinking he would drift I learned a valuable lesson to be respectful of each horse and trainer. This bay gelding ruined his chance with a tardy start but make no mistake he has ability. Don't be fooled into thinking he must be poor to run at plating class [surprisingly some two-year-olds have started in this grade and competed at Group class!]. The winner is a good, solid horse. The second is a speedster who lost in a photo finish in a nursery next start. While the third horse will be winning soon. Alan Berry's charge ran on well at the line and with that initial experience on side, stepping up in distance, expect marked improvement. If touching big odds on the exchanges I would be tempted to back this gelding. 

To add to the melee we have a debutante from Richard Fahey who is one of the best trainers of two-year-olds on their first start. Our data analysis has revealed that he is something of an anomaly. His first and second time out statistics with fancied two-year-olds is pretty much the same. This may not sound anything out of the ordinary but you couldn't be further from the truth. I can name only one or two trainer who fit such a criteria which details this stable pay great attention to their debutante's education and fitness. Malraaj is a home bred son of Iffraaj owned by the The Cosmic Cases who have fielded a number of talents [Cosmic Sun and Mister Hardy will bring fond memories for many readers]. The betting is the best guide to this youngster's chances. If priced 13/2 & less sp he could well bring something to the table.

Conclusion: This may be a small field but in its own way a fascinating race. It is a competitive little heat which puts me off betting because there seems little value with the favourites. Broadcaster is a good-looking colt for this grade. Connections will probably sit off the pace and hope to use that power to finish the race. The horse to beat. Ticking Katie is a winner waiting to happen and determined filly. Alan Berry doesn't get many plaudits but he can do the business with a talented juvenile. Straight Gin will be winning this season and time may tell that selling race was a full of winners. Expect a big run and if touching fancy odds on the exchanges I would be tempted to have a small bet. The betting is the best guide to Malraaj although he will need to be pretty smart to win this first start. A difficult race to be dogmatic and from a professional stand point a watching brief.


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