2:20 Wolverhampton (13th May) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Fillies' Stakes over 5f 20y. A restricted race with just six runners, four raced. In general, this race type is on a par with plating class and significance usually points to horses with form, especially of merit. Blockade is a daughter of Kheleyf who cost £12,000 at the yearling sales. She is owned by Saeed Manana and trained by James Tate who has impressed since starting his career a couple of years back. This brown filly was sent off a 66/1 shot when second string for a Newmarket maiden. The form of this race has been franked a number of times. Blockade finished a creditable sixth, losing by less than four lengths. Six winners have come from this race and there will be more to come. That data in itself makes this horse hard to beat. Her second start showed a similar level of form and a willing attitude. 

The other form horses, each once raced, have much to prove compared to the favourite. However, it is worth remembering that two-year-olds often improve immensely from their first to second start. From what we have seen, they need something of a transformation, which looks unlikely.

Ron Harris has been in good form with his juveniles this season. Danetimeranger was second string on debut at Kempton when sent off one of the outsiders. In fact she finished many lengths behind Blockade after being totally outpaced. This daughter of Bushranger will be wiser for that initial start but it would take a Goliath performance to reverse the form.  

Marti's Girl started her racing career at plating class, which in many ways would suggest this bay filly isn't up to much. With this being a maiden many punters will consider this is a step up in class. Without question that is the case as far as the major opponent is concern but by race type this isn't a gulf. Stan Moore is a canny trainer and he places his horses well. A cheap £550 foal, she has a fair chance of winning a race at two. In fairness, that was a tough selling race and the first three are all capable horses at that grade. Still, Marti's Girl doesn't look in the same class as Tate's.
  
Milton Bradley doesn't have many two-year-olds in training and most are pretty limited. Zac's Princess is bred, owned and trained by Milton out of a poor mare who never managed to taste victory, although she was placed on a few occasions. This Irish bred daughter of Zahran was a 100/1 shot when making her debut at Windsor. That may have been a ''lowly'' Maiden Auction but the form of that race is fair if not bordering on decent. The winner and second have both gone on to better things and I know the third horse [Hoku] is held in high regard. This March foal showed good pace from the stalls before steadily weakening. It's good to see Gannon taking the ride. A low draw and being well off in the weights might mean she surpasses the efforts of her dam sooner rather than later. 

In such a limited race it is tempting to consider the debutantes over those with form. However, the structure of these race makes it difficult for debutantes to defeat those with ability. 

David O'Meara has fielded a couple of two-year-olds, one particularly impressive called Innocently, who won on debut. It is interesting to see Rural Celebration is owned by Hambleton Racing Ltd because you would expect it to be handled by Kevin Ryan. This daughter of Pastoral Pursuits is well related to a number of talented juveniles including Yourartisonfire & Almond Branches. This February foal is bred to appreciate further but may be able to cope with the minimum trip. However, turning tracks are always more problematic for debutantes. The betting is the best guide to her chances. With a talented colt at home, the stable have a good guide and so money for this youngster would be a positive. 

The last of the debuatntes is Sandman's Girl trained by James Givens. This daughter of Kodiac is a recent breeze-up purchase from Goff's Kempton sale for £12,000. The fact that this bay filly has been through the sale's ring should garner fitness and experience. However, the stable doesn't feature the best strike rate with their debutantes. If strongly fancied in the betting it would bring more confidence. However, I would take a watching brief. 

Conclusion: Blockade ticks all the boxes with experience and proven form. This race type restricts the likelihood of the opposition attaining such a standard. The form horses need to improve a good deal to give favourite backers a scare. In there own way a couple may well gain a win within their formative season. It is important to respect each and every horse and the dreams of their owners. Rural Celebration is probably the most interesting horse in opposition and if substantially backed it would give some hope. However, I would be surprised if Blockade doesn't win today. 


2 comments:

Managed Risk said...

Greetings Jason,

My compliments on your in depth analysis. Your writing is a testament to hard work and the love of racing.

Good luck

Jake

Jason Coote said...

Thanks, Jake. :-)