3:30 Lingfield (Thursday 4th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 5f. Seven two-year-olds take part, four colts, three fillies, two with race experience.

It will be interesting to see whether Far Gaze makes the line-up after finishing a creditable second at Southwell [yesterday]. Stan Moore doesn't usually let the grass grow under his horse's feet so this son of Belmont might take his chance. This bay colt improved markedly on his debut and physically a fair early juvenile with some strength. He looks a determined character up to winning in this grade and a serious contender. 

Jo Hughes is a trainer to respect and the stable often like a bet. Diamond Lady, a daughter of Multiplex, was priced as though second string at Lingfield when showing good pace and finished runner-up to the fluent winner M'Selle. The form of that race has been franked with the fifth and sixth winning next start. The stable's Marilyn Marquessa was substantially backed but floundered after showing pace. However, she may have suffered with stage fright as a much better performance was seen at Kempton. El Duque was fancied to go well at Southwell - competing against Far Gaze - but disappointed. He may have struggled to handle the surface so I wouldn't be in a rush to crab the form at this stage. Diamond Lady is likely to improve for that first start and likely to front run. 

Of the debutantes, we have a a quartet of leading juvenile trainers.

Blazing Chilli was bought by his trainer, Bill Turner, for £6,000and & owned by Eric Brook, who has had many talents with this stable. The stable has already hit the highs with dual two-year-old stakes winner Mick's Yer Man. The major issue with this March foal is that he has been entered for a selling race. Sometimes there isn't that much of a gulf between auction and plating class but it doesn't inspire confidence. A horse I would rather take a watching brief. If opening at short prices on the exchanges, I would be tempted to lay this juvenile because if limited he could drift in the betting.

Tom Dascombe unleashes his first two-year-old of the season. Quatuor is an early foal and daughter of Kodiac. She cost 20,000euros and out of an unraced mare. The stable know how to ready a juvenile and if fancied in the betting should be noted. 

Mick Channon bred Narborough. First season sire Winker Watson was a precocious juvenile, although the twice raced dam showed next to no ability. The stable have a fair strike rate with their fancied runners.

Sleeping Angel is a home bred filly although went through the sales for £700. Milton Bradley is a capable trainer but the stable have few debut winners. I would take a watching brief.

Brendan Powell is another trainer who has achieved little success with his two-year-olds in recent years. Brockholes Flyer is a son of Belmont, a February foal, who cost £3,000 as a yearling. He is a gelding, so he may have been a handful at home. The only sign of confidence is that this youngster was earmarked for the Brocklseby. This race is often a pointer to fair juveniles but the stable debutantes are best watched.

Conclusion: There is a chance Far Gaze will make a quick reappearance but he will most likely be withdrawn. However, I can see this colt going well if Stan Moore takes this route. Diamond Lady ran well on debut and should improve. On balance she has a fair chance although I wouldn't take a short price. She has to compete against a few colts which can be a challenge. Quatour & Narborough hail from stables which have debut winners. They deserve respect and if well backed it would be a positive. The selling entry has put me off Blazing Chilli. Brockholes Flyer is only interesting because of the Brocklesby entry but best watched. Sleeping Angel is most likely to need to experience. 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

As ever very interesting analysis