3:50 Windsor (1st July) Free Horse Racing Tips

Windsor 
Good prize money for this fillies' conditions stakes over 5f 10y on good to firm ground.

Columella is quite a short price after winning on debut. This daughter of Kyllachy ran in a four-runner race at Warwick, which turned out to be a match between Mrs Warren and William Haggis' £65,000 yearling purchase. In many respects she wasn't best suited by the course and for most of the race was slightly outpaced, which may have been caused by inexperience. The trainer has recently given her a listed race entry which is encouraging. The negative may be that race was a pretty moderate contest. Mrs Warren is a leggy type who didn't achieve a great deal on debut but looked to have strengthened up after some time on the sidelines. I would still have concerns Columella may be outpaced and the price is most definitely based on potential rather than cast iron form. At short odds, one to watch.

Miss Diva is a fair juvenile, trained by Richard Hannon. She was outpaced by her stable mate Hairy Rocket on debut over course and distance then winning on her second start when returning to Windsor a week later. In fairness, those first two races have featured a number of very talented juveniles. Hoyam, trained by Michael Bell, reversed the form with Miss Diva , when running a stormer in the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2), seeing Hairy rocket finish third. She was also just pipped, down the field, by another of today's runner, Excel Yourself. If that race is a fair guide, there doesn't look much between the pair, although I would favour Miss Diva because I feel she has more natural speed although the above mentioned - trained by James Tate - is a little better off in the weights. A close call between the pair.

Ian Woods is a talented trainer who is often overlooked simply because he has a small string of two-year-olds. Three Crowns was another to finish behind Miss Diva in 4th place, beaten a similar number of lengths. This daughter of Three Valleys must have improved a touch when battling well against Jubilee Brig at Kempton. She is no slouch and worthy of respect at odds. Being behind Hannon's youngster on debut could well mean many punters feel she has little chance but she may well have progressed since that race. Jubilee Brig ran no race at Royal Ascot, but put up a huge effort against Bungleinthejungle at Salisbury, who then ran a fine race in the Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed). That form is strong and although Three Crowns was beaten by a couple of lengths last time it was a decent display. She could well hit the frame.

Harleys Rocket ran well last time winning for Brendan Powell at Lingfield. That auction maiden was a very restricted race, which holds the form down, while Paul Cole, who trained the runner-up, said the ground was terrible. This bay filly needs to improve a good deal to figure and perhaps her only chance is if the others go a stride too quick. Looks unlikely.

Shrimpton isn't the most attractive of fillies but she has a fair level of form. Ideally she needs this to be run at a pace, testing the stamina, because she is almost certain to be outpaced. If betting, you are likely to get much bigger odds in-running and probably reason why she has drifted on the exchanges. Channon's representative may look to have little chance mid race. However, she is a battling soul and if these tire at the death, she will be clawing after them. Be careful if laying. On balance, she may struggle to win but one to keep on the right side rather than thinking she's an easy target. 

Alan Bailey fields Seraphima. She hasn't been seen since early season and looked a very leggy juvenile. No doubt the trainer put her away to strengthen up. That was a so so effort at Newmarket, but not without a touch of hope, and if a stronger filly on return, may run better than her debut. Best watched.

Conclusion: An intriguing race. Good prize money on offer has tempted a couple of Royal Ascot losers, who, no doubt, will be wanting to prove they have ability. Miss Diva & Excel Yourself should go well. I would slightly favour the former as she looks to have more pace. I'm surprised to see Columella such a short price. Perhaps the Haggis filly has big plans on the horizon. However, her debut win was just about a match with a horse with no more than average form. Fair enough, she was going away at the line and could prove to be progressing in leaps and bound but I would take a watching brief. I have concerns she will be outpaced, then playing catch up. Three Crowns could go well at a price. Shrimpton will be outpaced but could run on well if the field go a stride too quickly. It often happens in stakes races. I would rather back her at huge odds in running than lay. Probably outclassed but an able type. The others look outclassed.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

absolute, the difinitive race review ever written. keep up this supreme standard. hce at its best.... 2nd to non.