2:20 Catterick (4th July) Free Horse Racing Tips

CATTERICK
An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 5f. A large field with lightly-raced juveniles, two debutantes.

An intriguing race.

The majority of this field don't make much appeal and a handful of two-year-olds will be the focus of our attention.

Mandi Lexi has been knocking on the door and a determined juvenile. Few trainers attain a consistency such as Bryan Smart, a talent in placing his horses. This daughter of Dark Angel failed to make a winning debut by no more than a stride or two and has done little wrong in each of her four races. I feared this grey filly would be outpaced when dropping back to the minimum distance at Carlisle. However, there was never a moments worry as she lead for most and was only foiled in the closing stages by Blue Lotus. That was probably a fair race and she must hold similarly strong claims here. From a low draw, Eaves will make a bold bid from the front. The soft conditions will not hinder and a capable filly at this grade. If touching an each way price (unlikely) Dr Marwan Koukash's youngster would make a good bet.

Our Diane seems quite fancied on the betting exchanges, which surprises me. David O'Meara's bay filly by Exceed And Excel was set a tall challenge when making her debut in the Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley. She was well backed, showed good speed, but dropped out in the final two furlongs. Well beaten. It is difficult to appreciate what happened next time at Chester. However, I was left with the impression someone knew she wasn't going to run much of a race. The late drift in the betting was significant. Whether connections feared the draw or the testing ground wasn't suiting, this bay filly never looked likely to win, racing wide. This youngster held an entry for the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2), which gives the impression she has not fulfilled her potential. The betting is the best guide. If strongly fancied I would take note. Although I couldn't entertain the thought of betting from stall twelve. A watching brief.

Tom Dascombe has been rather hit and miss with his juveniles this season. Dream Maker was a bargain buy: a £1,000 yearling purchase. She has been relatively fancied on both starts. This daughter of Bahamian Bounty coped with stepping back to the minimum trip at Redcar. On the surface that seems a fair display. However, I have concerns that form is limited. A good draw will see Kingscote try and lead but this chestnut filly may find this a tough task with the likes of Mandi Lexi chomping at the bit. She needs to improve and others make greater appeal.

David Barron has been catching the eye with his training exploits this season. Make no mistake this stable know when their two-year-olds hold a strong chance of winning. The betting has been a clear indicator of their debutantes. Tussy Marx - owned by Norton Common Farm Racing - is best judged by the betting. If substantially backed, she will most probably win. The negative? This course is suited to  more experienced juveniles with pace. Drawn two, this may be her Achilles heel. A tardy start would make this a difficult task. 

Therapeutic could be a good bet if not regressing. Scott Dixon must be surprised this daughter of Milk It Mick hasn't lost her maiden tag but that has been more to do with circumstances than limitation. She ran well on debut at Doncaster, a good few lengths behind Reckless Abandon, who went on to win the Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. The form of that racecourse bow has been franked on numerous occasions. At Beverley, she ran well to finish second behind Dream Scenario who may progress to race at Listed class. All looked good when made favourite at Musselburgh. She seemd a near certainty to be placed but Starbotton put pay to any hopes of that. James Bethell's youngster ran a fantastic race. I was impressed by that victory because not only did the winner show great pace but a gritty determination which saw those in behind crumple. That may be a blessing for those who back Therapeutic today because that running made her look much worse when, in truth, she is a capable type. The only concern is that after a few hard races she may start to regress, which would most likely see her unplaced. However, from a long draw, I would give her another chance, especially if a decent each way bet. 

Conclusion: An intriguing race on a number of levels. There seems to be money for Our Diane which makes me wonder what happened at Chester. She could well be better than seen but I would take a watching brief, especially from a wide draw which makes life difficult on this turning course. If condition deteriorated and the ground becomes very testing this could - in theory - be the  best stall. I would still take a watching brief although if starting favourite it would have to be viewed as a positive. Mandi Lexi is a consistent filly who deserves a win. I would expect a bold show and if touching an each way price a worthy bet. Looks outstanding for a place. The betting is key for Tussy Marx. Barron's stable have so many talented juveniles they clearly know what is required and bet to win. If backed to near favouritism I would expect a big run. Therapeutic would be my idea of a good each way selection especially at decent odds. That last run was deceptive and as long as she hasn't regressed could be of interest.

     

2 comments:

C.L.T.R.S said...

"An talent "..should be " A Talent "..10p Please ;-)

HCE said...

OK, I've got a proof reader's tally chart and just completed the ten-page paperwork which cost me 9.90 in time. Rounds it off to a nice tenner.

It has been noted.

When you get to a pound we can start talking cash.