2:30 Salisbury (12th June) Free Horse Racing Tips

by
Laurie Pace
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 6f on soft ground.

Eleven runners, a mix of colts and fillies, over half the field raced with one or two progressive juveniles. 

Cruck Realta sets a fair level for the restrictive conditions of this race. The form of her first run at Goodwood has been franked by the winner, Sky Lantern, taking a Listed class race at Naas on her second start and heading to Royal Ascot. It may have been a small field in which Channon's daughter of Sixties Icon competed but it looks plenty good enough after the third placed, Indignant, made a bold show at Kempton next time out. This bay filly was a bargain buy at £1,000 and being such a cheap purchase races off a lenient weight compared to many. Her second performance at Doncaster over 6 1/2f saw an even more noteworthy display, with the first three clear of the field. The ground is the main concern. Although this April foal has run on the softer side of good there is always a concern very testing conditions could throw a spanner in the works. On paper a sound bet but the ground is a slight question mark.

Momalorka - trained by William Haggis - is another cheap yearling at £800. This chestnut filly, a daughter of Dutch Art, ran in a competitive auction maiden which often yields a good few winners. She was relatively fancied at 14/1 although slightly outpaced mid race. Considering she was against experienced juveniles, who set a fair level of form, that was expected. Kelly Harrison gave a kind introduction and didn't resort to the whip. On balance that was an encouraging performance which suggests there will be better to come. The first three that day had a lead over Momalorka and it could be the case her running-on fifth may prove to flatter her a little because the leaders were stopping in the final furlong. That initial experience may allow her to sit handy but there is a worry she will be outpaced and then need to plug on at the line.

It is interesting to see Richard Hughes once again taking the ride on Red Adair. This son of Redback was fancied in the betting although quite weak at the off with huge support for Peter Chapple-Hyam's Maxentius. Hannon's juvenile wasn't best away and although he made up ground to just about join the leader at the two pole he soon faded inside the final furlong to finish third. He didn't look the most imposing of two-year-olds and would need to progress quite markedly on that initial start. It isn't beyond the realms there will improvement but I would rather take a watching brief unless backed to favouritism.

Stupenda, Mumbai Star & Bountybeamadam made their debuts at Kempton. The winner and second look fair juveniles for that grade and beat the opposition by a number of lengths.  Stepudena is a small filly trained by Denis Coakley. This daughter of Misu Bond certainly didn't lack for experience when handling the turning nature of Kempton. However, that natural speed didn't last and she faded in the final furlong. If that was due to fitness then she may hold a chance. I can see Stupenda showing good pace but I would have to take a watching brief as more is needed here. Mumbai Star & Bountybeamadam face a stiff task.

The debuatntes will need to be fit, ready and pretty smart to challenge the favourites. Richard Hannon is represented by Branson. He is one of the more expensive juveniles but best watched.

Of the others *Aint Got A Scooby is worth noting in the betting. Clive Cox is a superb trainer and his juveniles can win on debut. However, the best are usually priced 13/2 & less. These have fair win and place claims. 

Conclusion: Cruck Realta has strong claims as long as the soft ground doesn't bog her down. If racing on firmer conditions I would feel quite confident but - even though a leading hope - it pays to be careful at short prices. Momalorka showed promise on debut and could be a decent each way prospect. There could be improvement to come and if that form can be taken literally would be of interest. I have slight concerns she will be outpaced mid race which would make life more difficult and tempers enthusiasm. Certainly one of the main contenders and the stable have decent win and place claims with juveniles fancied on their second start. Personally, I would take a watching brief. Red Adair needs to improve. Of the debutantes Aint Got A Scooby may hold a chance if strongly fancied in the betting but that looks unlikely. 

*NR

Note: 6:30 Brighton - Whistling Buddy is a short priced favourite. I'm not sure what Kicken Off achieved on debut for Phil McEntee but I was impressed by the physical stature of this two-year-old. A good-looking colt who may go well at a price.  







3 comments:

Managed Risk said...

Jason,

The in depth analysis you provide is top notch and the work of a true professional.Quality work.

Jake

HCE said...

Thanks, Jake. Much appreciated. For those who do not know, Jake runs an excellent blog called Managed Risk which specialise in US horse racing. It is great that he, like many others blogger from near and far, give our blogging community true global appeal. Take a look at his webiste: http://tbankbuilder.blogspot.co.uk/

Managed Risk said...

Thanks Jason.