2:40 Folkestone (5th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A maiden race on good to firm ground over 5f. A field of six two-year-olds, three with experience, a mix of colts & fillies. 

Perfect Words hails from Mick Channon's stable, which has seen a number of juvenile in these first few days of the season. This son of Thousand Words is the first test the of the Brocklesby form after finishing sixth. A relatively cheap purchase at 6,000euros, that initial experience is a huge advantage against debutantes. After making a bright start from the stalls, this compact juvenile was slightly outpaced before plugging on at the finish. On balance, in the context of an average race, that could be a fair run. The Brocklesby is a contest I respect and often subsequent runners prove victorious. The major concern is why this juvenile has been entered for a couple of selling races. There does seem to have been a glut of such races this early season which may have forced trainers' hands. Still, it would, in my mind, be a reflection of some limitation. However, with experience, from a race that normally works out, and a creditable placing are positives. Channon features fair win and place claims with fancied horses on their second start. 

Maypole Joe comes from the same race but finished a remote tenth. As seen with David Evans' winner yesterday, Dreamy Ciara, juveniles can often leave a debut run behind them. Evans' Brocklesby performers often go on to win a race in their two-year-old campaign which gives some hope. However, unless substantially backed, it is best take a watching brief.

Richard Hannon's Relay ran in the first two-year-old race of the season - a big drifter in the market from a fancied opening price. This bay filly flew from the stalls but faded in the closing stages as if unfit or limited. The form of the Kempton race has been franked. This bay filly has breeding to appreciate a greater test of stamina but that experience could bring further encouragement from a stable who often go well on their second start. Relay is another to have been entered at selling class.

Of the debutantes, Marchwood, an attractive bay colt, (as seen from using the Horse Trainer Directory) is sired by Assertive. On balance, Moore doesn't feature the best win rate on debut although I have a feeling  the stable won this race with Nikindi, who was substantially backed, many years ago. Probably a watching brief but one to take note if supported.

Bill Turner is represented by Judy In Disguise. A bay filly by Elusive City, she may need a greater test of stamina. Turner doesn't feature the best win rate with his juveniles on debut although often fit and well. A difficult horse to assess. This youngster has also been entered to run in selling class.

Miss Agent is seemingly second string for David Evans and best watched.

Conclusion: Race experience is often a huge pointer against debutantes and Perfect Words sets the standard. Channon does well with his runners on their second start and should frank the Brocklesby form, although the selling entry tempers enthusiasm. Relay needs to improve on her debut run at Kempton. That was probably a fair race but she tired dramatically in the closing stages. That experience may be the key but a plating entry is a concern. Maypole Joe finished behind Perfect Words - completely outpaced. It is encouraging that Evans put him in the Brocklesby but needs to be transformed by that initial start. Of the unraced Marchwood could be of interest, especially if backed. The others are best watched. The theme of this race is that many have been entered to run in selling class (Marchwood & Maypole Joe being the exception) and that doesn't bode well for these juvenile's long-term career.

3 comments:

C.L.T.R.S said...

dONT LIKE pERFECT wORDS AT ALL AND MY SPEED RATINGS only have it as being around 62 ( RP rating of 76 is a joke ) , this wont take much winning , going for a dutch on a couple of roughies and laying the fav at 2.0 ;-)

HCE said...

Hi Clint,

Yes, it is a funny old race. Difficult to know what to think as they will probably constitute the good, bad and ugly. I don't back short priced favourites so not really bothered who wins to be honest. Until the form settles down people are sticking their neck out on the favourite (that may lead to their head - or pocket - being chopped off. Nice race to watch for me. I'm interested in seeing how Marchwood goes but it is difficult backing debutantes because a slow start or inexperience can may a good bet back all too quickly. Good luck to you.

HCE said...

That should be good bet turn bad... I really need to proofread these comments...although your out-of-sync caps look manic...lol. (Joke)