2:10 Nottingham (11th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Novice Stakes over 5f13y on good to soft ground. 

Dreamy Ciara, trained by David Evans, has already tasted victory after a narrow win over Poetic Princess at Wolverhampton. This daughter of Multiplex is a big, strong, attractive filly. A wide draw and slow start ruined her chance on debut at Kempton where she finished behind her old advisary. However, a canny ride by Cathy Gannon, up the rail, probably made all the difference. On balance, that was a pretty average contest and far from a fully-blown maiden let alone this higher grade. What she does have on side is experience and that could be key against debutantes. With a penalty, this March foal has to scrap against the boys with just a few pounds to spare. 

In truth, this looks a two-horse race. The main opposition is likely to come from Richard Hannon's Black Monk. This Irish-bred son of Dark Angel was originally purchased by Peter & Ross Doyle for £66,000 from the Doncaster Yearling Sales. Interestingly, this was one of four juveniles entered from the East Everleigh Stable. That in itself suggests they mean business and with good prize money on offer I would imagine this bay colt is fit and well. A February foal, he could well be forward. The major worry is that inexperience will be costly and even though Dreamy Ciara may be no more than an average juvenile she is a winner.

Making up the quartet we have Yes Two & Frosted Off.

Yes Two is trained by Rod Millman, a relatively cheap purchase. The stable have a professional approach but very few of their two-year-olds win on debut and best watched. Their juveniles often run well on their second start at speculative odds.

Frosted Off hails from the John Spearing's Kinnersley Racing Stables. This son of Verglas is bred to be a sprinter but the yard features a poor strike rate on debut which doesn't inspire confidence. 

Conclusion: Unless there is something of a surprise I wouldn't look beyond the the two favourites: Dreamy Ciara & Black Monk. The former is an attractive filly, who will not look the ugly duckling against these colts. In fact, she may be bigger and stronger than the boys. Experience is a huge advantage and Beggy is likely to make the running, to twist the knife and test the potentially inexperienced Black Monk. For all of her positives I would still have concerns that her win amounts to little. It was a restrictive race and that could bring limitation. Perhaps that is enough to secure a second victory. However, I would be very fearful of Black Monk who was a costly acquisition compared to this field. In addition, Hannon had four juveniles entered for this contest which - to some extent -  increases the likelihood this two-year-old has a level of ability and probably educated being an early foal. From my perspective there is little to be gained from betting. A watching brief.

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