2:10 Folkestone (12th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 5f on good to soft ground. A disappointing turn out with just four runners - three colts & one filly - the majority with race experience. 

Marchwood is likely to be a short-priced favourite. As yet, Stan Moore's two-year-olds have not seen the winner's enclosure but he is a dab hand with his juveniles and recently quoted: ''We've had a couple of 2yo runners finish 4th and one finish 3rd so far but hopefully will get them in the swing soon.'' This bay colt, a son of Assertive, is a fair-looking juvenile, who travelled well on debut over course and distance. At times, he looked to be moving in stylish fashion with hopes of victory. However, these aspirations we quickly trumped by Judy In Disguise who powered home for an easy win. Keniry administered a couple of cracks of the whip but it had little effect and he finished third. On balance, the form of that race is probably limited. Moore features a poor win rate on debut and his juveniles often improve for their racecourse bow. In addition, it is intriguing to consider that Marchwood held an entry for the Brocklesby Stakes, which in previous years has proven a decent yardstick to identifying future winners.  

Suivez L'Argent - the only filly in the field - has been placed on both starts although at plating class. In fact, she has been defeated by Severn Bore on both occasions and has a question mark or two. This daughter of Pastoral Pursuits gave a glimmer of hope on debut, finishing in some style. However, last time's effort didn't indicate such promise. Perhaps more forcing tactics took the edge off her finish although it doesn't pay to make too many excuses for disappointments. Breeding suggests a stiffer test of stamina would suit and Joseph Tuite commented that this was her grade. Physical characteristics play a big part in my assessment of a horse's ability and although not carved in stone - especially for fillies - a small, weak horse isn't the template of a good prospect in my opinion. There was something about her latest performance which suggested she would struggle to win today.

The Mick Channon bred, owned & trained Rated showed little on debut at Musselburgh when priced 33/1. The first four looked capable juveniles but this bay colt was a hellishly long way behind. This son of Sixties Icon shouldn't be judged solely on a poor debut. However, something of a transformation is needed after this limited offering. The betting is the best guide. Most juveniles show their worth second start and for that reason deserve respect. Money talks with this stable and unless substantially backed is best watched.

Ladweb is a debutante for John Gallagher.  This American-bred son of Bertolini is a cheap purchase at  £1,400. Breeding suggests a test of stamina will suit in time. The mare won over 5f at two and to be fair achieved a tidy total prize winnings in her long career, a 70- rated handicapper. The negative is that Gallagher has very few winners on debut. It isn't beyond the realms this chestnut colt can follow in his parent's footstep and win at two. On his race course bow he is best watched.

Conclusion: A poor race. Many of these auction races are little more than glorified platers and time may tell the winner took advantage of a truly limited affair. Marchwood will be a short price but this is a fine opportunity and I expect him to win. A fair-looking juvenile, he is likely to be fitter for his debut over course and distance. The Brocklesby entry is a positive sign, too. Perhaps Suivez L'Argent deserves a third chance and many a punter may be willing to do just that. It may be in here favour to settle off the pace and finish with vigour. However, I wasn't impressed by this small, weak filly and Tuite's representative just didn't remind me of a winner waiting to happen. I couldn't bet on this filly. A similar story goes for Rated, who would need to be heavily backed to bring any confidence. Ladweb is most likely to need the run although could progress with time.


2 comments:

C.L.T.R.S said...

Morning Buddy..Marchwood is nailed on imo..

HCE said...

Hi Clint,

Funny little race, hey. I think Marchwood should go well. Pity it wasn't in a bigger race as I might have had a few quid each way but just a watching brief at those odds. If it's every going to win today is the day :-).