In Search of the Outsider: The Significance of Trainers & Starting Price

From what we have learned so far, it becomes apparent that  finding an outsider with a lively chance of winning on debut needs a certain calibre of a trainer. The problem with following the elite is that their juveniles are very much in the spotlight. As we have mentioned, their reputation precedes them to a point where many are under priced.

Few trainers, however capable, feature a level stakes profit with their debutantes. In fact, most would make truly poor bets from a blanket approach. Even looking at the individual rather than the general? To a certain extent, this would be a pointless exercise. Why? Because it is a remote chance these two-year-old could win at speculative odds. It would simply dictate they have a slim chance of winning. For example, from just over 450 debutantes, how many two-year-old winners did Mick Channon train priced over 8/1? It was in single figures. Fair enough, a large number of his juveniles were fancied in the betting. But would that inspire you to wager? I wouldn’t be interested. It is surprising how difficult it is to win on debut – at any price. And don’t forget how many win against a field of debutantes. The statistics would no doubt plummet when racing against experienced horses primed to run for their lives.

What we are searching for is this: not the biggest stables and certainly not the smallest who rarely train a two-year-old let alone a juvenile winner. What we need is that trainer who has plenty of ammunition but somehow slips under the radar. There are a number of interesting candidates.

One of the best candidates is Michael Dods. In my opinion, he is a talented trainer of two-year-old, especially on debut. He has excellent statistics with his debutantes, which, strangely, seem to have more chance of winning at speculative odds than when strongly fancied. However, the icing on the cake for his debutantes is when running on the soft or heavy ground. I’m not sure if he goes for the type of horse with hooves the size of dinner plates but they often love testing conditions. If you see one of his juveniles priced 40/1, 50/1 or even 66/1 on debut, racing in the terrible ground they make outstanding each way bets.

Now, I’m not saying all of them are going to win. Who would imagine they could! This article is simply to highlight which trainers can go well at speculative odds in the knowledge that you have a fighting chance.

My brother bets on many horses just because he likes their physical stature. In fact, he goes to the extreme of not really caring who trains them. He's had so many big priced winners it is quite astonishing. What I want to highlight from his success is that gigantic-priced horses fall into a niche area to prove victorious. It is all about looking in the right direction. That is the reason why some gamblers win and others lose. They have the skills to know that rich seam of gold is within reach while others are searching unforgiving grounds. 

Make sure you read Part 3 (coming soon)

8 comments:

MadGambler said...

A different Stat you should use ( imo )is the one whereby you check trainer stats for them sending their horses North/South as applicable , ie: Godolphin at Beverley or Ayr and likewise Fahey darn sarff ETC... , QUITE OFTEN FOLLOWING YARDS THAT SEND THEIR HORSES ( caps off ) to specific tracks to gain exp or win , Yarmouth/Cecil used to be a good pointer...

HCE said...

Hi Clint,

Thanks for your comment. Yes, all good points. I always enjoy a day's racing at Yarmouth. Have you ever been to that neck of the woods?

MadGambler said...

yeah , used to go quite often.., it was also my parents butlins choice...;-)

HCE said...

After your scathing attack John has gone into retirement: bewildered, hurt and agrophobic. See, it proves how careful people need to be when leaving comments...lol.

HCE said...

That comment was for Neil...

He has been very verbal...lol.

Anonymous said...

One big pointer to success is horses running in stakes races fto (firsttimeout) .nearly 50% of all stakes runners fto, go on to be group race entered.33% of all group entered juveniles win. Stats can pin point factors that form cannot..also pay close attention to new trainers. Many hit the floor running and they can be significantly over priced for a season or two.also look for winning owners changing stables.especially going to a new trainer or smaller talented trainer.

Neil said...

More good stuff here. Love me stats.

Could you run this through your magic machine?

2yo filly-only maiden sprint races with 7 or fewer runners. Backing the favourite yeilds good results - what say ye?

HCE said...

Hi Neil,

My research relates only to a given trainers.