12:30 Lingfield (5th December) Horse Racing Tips/Result

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 1m. Instrumentalist ran well on this course when making his debut for John Best. This bay colt by Amadeus Wolf  made a promising introduction finishing fourth, rallying in the closing stages to suggest this extra furlong will help. Costing £27,000, this attractive juvenile will be primed for a big run today. From a statistical point of view, his runners feature respectable win and place claims when fancied on their second start.


In what looks to be no more than a moderate event, his experience will be an advantage over most debutantes, especially from unfashionable stables and a fair each way selection if prices allow.


Dark Falcon is an interesting recruit for first-season trainer, James Tate. His father is a seasoned campaigner within the training ranks and the 31-year-old has the talents to make a success after being Mark Johnston's senior vet for the last six years. He will certainly be hoping to keep on the good side of Saeed Manana who by any stretch of the imagination is a wealthy owner. Until recent, this son of Dark Angel was in the care of Ed Dunlop and quite fancied on debut at Wolverhampton when finishing fourth, beaten three lengths, but never quite getting on term with the leaders. A 62,000gns purchase, he is worthy of consideration especially so when Tate said he had a few decent prospects after this first two-year-old runner, Cape Safari, finished third. This extra furlong will be to his advantage and I can see this juvenile making a bold show.


Villa Royale showed a gutsy display when slogging through the mud at Ffos Las over one mile. That was probably a fair race because the second, Opera Buff, is a juvenile held in some regard and both were only mowed down by the eventual winner simply because they tired in the closing stages. Harry Dunlop can be rather hit and miss with his two-year-olds but I was quite taken by that performance and another who has each way claims.


Of the other form horses Hill Of Dreams and Applaudere may show more ability on their second start. Both Dean Ivory and Jamie Osbourne are capable of sending out speculative-priced winners. If either are supported, it would add to their chance.


Most of these debutantes come from unfashionable stables, but that certainly isn't the case for Duke Of Clarence who hails from Richard Hannon all-conquering yard. This colt by the late Verglas cost 45,000gns as a yearling and well bred being a half-brother to Special Kaldoun. It is never easy to assess unraced juveniles, especially against experienced opposition on a turning track. Hannon holds a 22% win rate with fancied debutantes in recent years and should be respected. If following in the hoof prints of his talented half-brother he would take the world of beating. A difficult horse to judge but worthy of respect.


Conclusion: A difficult race to assess. From a statistical point of view Instrumentalist has the best win and place claims. That initial experience will be to his favour and he should be primed for a big run.  Dark Falcon is another who will improve for this extra furlong. James Tate is clearly full of ambition and few newcomers have the clout of Saeed Manana to back them up. I would be surprised if Dark Falcon wasn't in the frame. Villa Royale is a gusty filly and I like that attitude. All three noted have each way claims. Duke Of Clarence could prove to be the class act here but winning on debut is never easy, especially on a turning track against experienced juveniles. 


HCE: ''A good, professional performance from Instrumentalist who always sat handy and passed Dark Falcon in the closing stages. Villa Royale loomed up with every chance but was difficult to ride with the bit slipping and finished third. Duke Of Clarence had a difficult task after a slow start but ran well in defeat and will go better next time''  

4 comments:

MadGambler said...

i do like villa royale ( place market ) here...hope ur well mate ;-)

HCE said...

Hi Clint,

Yes, it is an interesting race. Not really sure who I would pick to win but like a few form place claims.

:-)

Mark said...

Hey Jason

I'm really enjoying the daily banter between your good self and Clint from the phoenix racing blog.

I'll let you into a secret; I'm enjoying it so much that I have now added phoenix racing to my blog links. Don't let Clint know though ;-)

Keep up the great work (and banter) mate

Mark

HCE said...

:-)

Hi Mark,

I see you have been hitting the places again with your selections. You are Mr Consistent. Hope is all going well.