12:40 Redcar (1st November) Horse Racing Tips/Result

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f on good ground. Starboard will be a banker for many a punter at Redcar. This bay colt by Zamindar is a good-looking specimen with size and scope to progress. He was sent off favourite for a thirteen-runner race at Ascot, which featured decent prize money. It was a race full of surprises with two 66/1 shots taking the spoils, one being a second-string to Starboard, trained by John Gosden.


In truth, that turned out to be a pretty competitive race and this Khalid Abdulla-owned youngster lost his place after being hampered leaving the stalls. He made an eye-catching move mid-race and traded at quite short odds, looking a major threat. However, that effort faded as quickly as it materialised and his jockey resigned himself to an encouraging first start but to many favourite backers a disappointing end result. Today's race looks no more than an average maiden and there has been big money on the exchanges to a point he will go off odds-on favourite. In the context of this race, Starboard has  strong claims of winning based on that debut effort. The horse to beat, but prohibitive odds.


Scrupul - trained by Luca Cumani - was relatively fancied on debut and finished behind Starboard on his first at Ascot. This colt by Dylan Thomas was much too keen and tired rapidly in the closing stages. He ran much better at York when stepping up to one mile. It was encouraging that he was once again fancied in the betting. To finish a remote second, after pulling at the start in a slowly run race, was a fair effort and Scrupul has fair place claims although may struggle to beat the favourite.


William Haggis is represented by Shatter, a bay filly who cost E100,000 as a yearling and owned by Cheveley Park Stud. I am pretty sure connections have been quoted as saying this juvenile is held in some regard. However, although fancied on debut when ridden by Paul Hanagan, she didn't achieve a great deal on her race course bow at Yarmouth. She is bred to appreciate this step up in distance and if backed to 13/2 & less would have fair win and place claims. However, much more is needed today. 


It is interesting to note that Paul Hanangan takes the ride on Moorside Magic, trained by Richard Fahey. Whether he had the choice of riding Shatter could be an interesting pointer. This home bred filly is a difficult horse to assess but one to keep on side. Although unfancied in the betting, is one of the more likely types in potentially a moderate maiden.


Of the others, Cardinal Waiter cost E160,000 as a yearling, owned by the influential Mrs Fitri Hay. This juvenile was trained by Paul Cole  but removed to David Simcock's stable. Any juvenile costing such a princely sum is worthy of consideration and especially so if backed to 13/2 & less. 


An outsider with a chance may be Dos Amigos. Michael Dods' two-year-olds can often go well on debut at speculative odds and could have place claims.


Conclusion: Starboard looks the horse to beat. A good-looking colt, he was fancied on debut but had a luckless start to his career. The money has come for this youngster and his backers are clearly hoping to recoup their losses, although at odds-on there isn't too much meat on the bone. Scrupul has each way claims but a difficult horse to assess and likely to struggle against the favourite. The betting is the best guide to the chances of Shatter, Moorside Magic & Cardinal Waiter. If priced 13/2 & less they could have claims but the betting would suggest others are favoured. Dos Amigos may sneak into a place at speculative odds.

HCE: ''There must have been a strong word for Starboard as he was substantially backed. An easy win, which never looked in doubt. Galacian ran well in second showing good pace, while Dos Amigos hit the frame at huge odds. Scrupul didn't help his chances by pulling too hard and is capable of better.''

3 comments:

MadGambler said...

personally i would either lay starboad or back a roughie at place only , imo the lay on the fav is a better bet, i would rather have evens the lay than odds on with something that is more hype than substance, yes it could well trot in by 10 lengths , but for me the lay is the value call.

And a good afternoon to you matey ;-) , what sort of day did you have yesterday?, did you have a go on MC? , i had 1st and 3rd plus the lay ;-)).

MadGambler said...

Starboard absolutely hosed up , different gravy i did get my 1.7 matched thankfully due to the 3 lengths it lost at the start so i greened up but i must also say well done on the mention with the 3rd dos amigos 3rd @ 100/1 .

wd mate.

HCE said...

Hi Clint,

Thanks for your comment. I was pleased to see my 100/1 speculative quote got a 3rd :-). I didn't have a bet in the 12:40 Redcar. Just a watching brief. I don't back odds-ons. I won a few quid yesterday. Just had a couple of bets in the 2yo races. No, I didn't have a bet in the MC. I don't really bet things I don't understand so just watched with interest. I noticed you had the winner and third. Will be keeping an eye on your Redcar selections. Looking forward to the 1:10 Redcar although won't be betting unless Bond Style is backed. That doesn't look likely. I see that it is your lay bet, but it has good place claims if backed to 13/2 & less sp (not that looks likely).

Good luck for the day.