Sunday, 22 May 2011

Quick Note...

Mick: Loves you, that bird
It's been a quiet day without any two-year-old racing. However, it was a good opportunity to review a number of races with my brother, Tony. He is behind XL Tips which you can find at the top of the page or the link on the right hand side. XL Tips give truly speculative bets and they are very, very, very infrequent. It's not as though you have a decent 33/1 shot running every week, hey. I will highlight when he gives a tip on HCE so you don't need to visit his blog on a daily basis because it is a ghost town. If you keep watching you may see some tumble weed roll by but it's pretty quiet. He is very good though. I don't know too many people who have struck gold with 100/1+ winners on Betfair and he has many times. 

Four two-year-old races tomorrow: Carlisle, Leicester, Windsor & Thirsk. A bit of a mixed bag with a selling race, auction, maiden and stakes. I have had a quick review but need to take an in depth look this evening and tomorrow to come to any conclusions. 

Something did catch my eye on tomorrow's card. Made me smile. It must be a first for Mick Easterby. He is training a two-year-old for the Sangster Family. Risky Art runs at 2:00 Carlisle over 5f. I had thoughts of The Minstrel and got quite excited until I notice it was a median auction maiden. This Dutch Art filly cost 5,500gns so small change but nice to see. Good luck to Risky Art on her debut.



Neil said...

Hi Jason

The Thirsk race features a lot of beasts in your "selling stones to waders" post because it's the actual selling race they were entered in that caused you to pinpoint them.

The one at Windsor only has 6 runners so my bot will be tracking that one for some odds-on laying action.

Regarding the Carlisle race, you know I love my stats and this actually reverses my usual laying procedure. Take a look at these parameters:

During the month of May, look at favourites in 2yo Class 6 or 7 Maiden sprints (less than 6f 111y).

With a field of fewer than 10 runners, you have a massive 57% strike rate. £10 stakes would give you just over a £100 profit.

With 10 or more runners, a horrible 17% strike rate and £10 stakes would leave you £160 in the red.

Even including the 2nd fav doesn't help - small fields just decrease your profit and large fields increase your loss.

Granted there are only 3 or 4 such races a year, but I am going back to 2004. If there are no n/r I would be looking away from Flambard House.

I have spent too much time on that to pass comment on the Leicester race :)

HCE said...

Hi Neil,

Thanks for your comment. Lots of great insight and sure many readers will take advantage of your stats. Yes, the selling entrants only come into play when they are running at a higher grade. Most run at that level but some don't and they can be interesting. Yes, a few races to consider today. Good luck.

Neil said...

Well there you go - The Carlisle race had 11 runners and the top 3 in the betting all unplaced so that extends the poor sequence for favourites in that race profile.