4:00 Wolverhampton (9th May)

A restricted maiden auction fillies' race over 5f20y.

Not the most exciting heat. Most likely a moderate field of juveniles.

Bill Tuner will be hoping Launch On Line can win. A £5,800 yearling, this filly has plenty of pace and is likely to lead these a merry dance. The turning nature of Wolverhampton is going to suit and this daughter of Majestic Missile should be much too savvy for the debutantes. However, there are negatives. Looks aren't everything with fillies - ability comes in all shapes and sizes - although if this was a beauty contest Launch On Line would probably get the wooden spoon. She is very small and physically resembles a plating horse. These factors may not hinder her chances today but they are concerns. She is nippy and it is likely Turner's youngster will turn the final bend with an easy lead. It is a fair bet she will touch big odds on in running. One questions to answer is whether she can last the final furlong. There is a chance she is a short runner. However, this course will help her last to the line. At 6/4f this isn't my type of bet. If you do take the plunge, I would be tempted to lay your stake in running at huge odds on just as an insurance policy. You may fancy employing such tactics and hope she gets caught to win a small fortune just in case she struggles to finish.

What of the opposition?

Xyzzy has an element of ability but looks no better than average. Linda Stubbs is a talented trainer and places her two-year-olds to have a finghting chance. Xyzzy has place claims although a recent selling race entry illustrates her limitations.

Bojangle is quite an attractive filly. It was interesting to see Hanagan booked on debut and this Ffrench Davies youngster ran on quite well at Southwell but needs to be switched on today. A turning course doesn't look ideal, and although not without some hope for the future, may be better over 6f.

Of the rest, Compton Shuttle hails from Hans Adielsson stable - a former champion trainer in Sweden. It is interesting to note that James Doyle was booked to ride this mount and Bojangle. Doyle has ridden a number of times for Adielsson and it may be the case he is simply retained to some extent although it could be presumed he had the choice, which may give additional hope regarding this daughter of Shirocco. Breeding suggests a much greater trip is needed.

One of the better two-year-old trainers is Kevin Ryan who is represented by Bitter Lemon. His daughter takes the ride - which is quite unusual on his juveniles. A very cheap purchase plus high draw don't inspire. Ryan features a fair win and place claims with his fancied juveniles on debut but I would rather watch considering the likely blazing tactics employed by Launch On Line.

Two outsiders who may have a glimmer are Blodwen Abbey & Fanrouge.

This race hinges on the running of one juvenile - Launch On Line. This speedy type is likely to scorch to an easy lead and it will be a case of whether she can last to the line. She will most probably win. As an insurance policy I would be tempted to lay the stake at huge odds on. For those who wish to have a speculative punt laying 1.01 in running, you may have a chance of striking gold. Definitely the horse to beat.


HCE: ''A poor race. Xyzzy made the most of her experience to sit in a handy position and battled on well to hold the late charge of Blodwen Abbey. Economic Crisis ran on for third. Launch On Line is regressing fast and couldn't last when coming into the straight. It is a lesson in paying attention to the look of juveniles. A desperate performance.

4 comments:

Neil said...

Hi

Regarding the first at Brighton, you have probably guessed by now my aversion to odds-on chances in small runner fields, but to top it all, SHERE KHAN has no form either so I will be laying this one if it stays under 2.0

HCE said...

I bet you were smiling from the start. :-)You are doing well with your short priced Hannon lays. It is never easy to win on debut and Brighton is a difficult course. Good start for the day.

Neil said...

Thanks yes. To be honest the fact that it was Hannon didn't make any difference for me - it was the number of runners and race profile.

HCE said...

Hi Neil,

Two-year-old odds on shot are always prone to losing. Strangely lots seem to come unstuck when price 4/7f. The win rate need for people willing to take such prices makes it hard work long term.

Good going for you.