Thursday, 7 April 2011

2:10 Ripon (7th April) - Result

An EBF Maiden over 5f .

A field of debutantes - predominantly fillies.

It would be fitting if Tim Easterby sponsored this race as he has made a monopoly of winning this event in recent years. In fact in the last four years he has won this race on three occasions with talented horses such as Cristal Clear, Anglezarke, Cocktail Charlie & Saucy Girl was second to a decent colt. This is something of a phenomenon as Easterby's juveniles feature a poor win rate on debut. For whatever reason, this race is an exception. Queen's Revenge is likely run a big race

This looks a tricky race in many ways with a number of these handlers known as 2yo trainers, specifically able to win on debut. Fahey, Evans, Ryan & Channon are all worthy of respect and all relatively fancied in the betting.

Mick Channon has been quiet so far this season but he will have plenty of winners. As a starting point, the price is important to the chances of Princess Banu. Very few of Channon's juveniles win when priced over 7/1 on debut. In addition, even when relatively fancied, he still doesn't attain as high a win rate on debut as is popularly considered amongst punters. Saying that, Princess Banu is quite well bred, being out of a Listed class winner. A juvenile that is likely to win in her 2yo career but a watching brief today.

The humourously named No Legs is appropriately ridden by Cathy Gannon. David Evans has been in fine form with his juveniles - a number have won while others have been placed. This filly by Camacho is a sister to Star Rover [trained by Evans] and related to Jamesway who was a fair juvenile for Richard Fahey. Once again, although Evans has done well with his debutantes this term his youngster can be rather hit and miss. It is certainly a positive that Star Rover won his first four races. Interesting.

Kodiac King hails from Kevin Ryan's stable. His two-year-olds have been in decent form with a nice winner at Musselburgh and entrant in the Brocklesby has an element of ability. This son of Kodiac may be better over further and will struggle to win if priced over 7/1. Considering about 40% of Ryan's juveniles are priced 13/2 on debut, his win rate is relatively poor. Another trainer who can be difficult to assess although if well backed it would be a sign of encouragement. Another positive is from memory Ryan has sent some of his better 2yo to Ripon.

Richard Fahey had the first and second at Beverley yesterday. Alejandro is weak in the betting but Fahey can win with such candidates and certainly one of the better trainers on debut.

A difficult race to call. A field of debutantes is always something of a lottery with varied abilities, inexperience and fitness part of the mix. The most important factor for me is Tim Easterby's record in this particular race and Queen's Revenge may have place claims.

HCE: ''Tim Easterby keeps up his amazing record in this race - now winning four out of the last five years (and a 2nd). It didn't look likely after Queen's Revenge was slow from the stalls losing many lengths. However, this must be a talented juvenile - a good looker too for a filly - because she soon made up ground and even finding trouble in running, held every chance at the 2f pole. A gap opened and she won by a head from Alejandro who done little wrong after being weak in the betting early morn but backed late. The well backed Almond Branches ran ok in third.''


Anonymous said...

good pointer. highlighting the easterby race stats was the answer to this ripon maiden.

Mark said...

Hi Jason

Great write up mate, I was very impressed by the way the race seemed to go according to the plan you laid out.

As a two-years-olds newbie follower I am really learning a lot from your posts with regards to what to look for when on the surface there appears to be very little data to work with.

keep it up mate

HCE said...

Hi Mark,

Thanks for your comment. It was a funny race at Ripon but there are always a few sign posts to keep on the right track and Tim Easterby really does seem to keep a talented horse for this race. His success over the last five years has been exceptional. In fact, if you had backed all of his runners you would have had over 30 points profit. The other runner came second to a good horse.


bri said...

Bad result for me laid Queens Revenge as looked more like a sheep as she was so hairy in paddock, must be decent and Easterby knew she was good as on looks it was a nono, fell out of stalls then am the only idiot in the village.

HCE said...

Hi Bri,

Sorry to hear you had a bad result with Queen's Revenege winning. Easterby has certainly done well in this race over the last few years. Simon Mapletoft - on ATR - siad she looked backward but it just shows how looks are difficult to judge. Easterby's general statistics for his 2yo debutantes are not oo good although he does do better with his fancied runners. Past winners Cristal Clear, Anglezarke run at Group level at two and Cocktail Charlie at Listed class. It was probably the case that Queen's Revenge was simply a different class yesterday. Allen won without touching the horse and after such a poor start that was a great effort. I can see this filly racing at Group level. Pity you got the short end of the deal.