Monday, 7 February 2011

Bad news travels fast - Betfair Profit & Loss Blog

(Originally posted on John's The Betfair Profit & Loss Blog) 

January Update 1st-25th
Ok, this is going to be very ugly viewing. There are few positives that can be taken from this obviously, but I know where I went wrong and was happy to take these risks at the time. Basically, I had a very big bet on New England Patriots to win their AFC Championship NFL game with New York Jets and paid the price. Tom Brady who is usually very reliable and trustworthy had a very poor game and looked passionless throughout. This cost me dear, as I was trading out for a big loss before half-time.

To make matters worse, I also lost big money on Venus Williams a few days later. That really did put the end to the worst week I've had since this time last year. It was really bad timing at its very worst. Venus Williams lost the first set on a tie-break to Sandra Zahlavova then got injured at the start of the second which resulted in her barely being able to move, let alone swing her racket. Everyone thought it was game, set and match, so they piled into Zahlavova at very short odds. However, after a 10 minute injury time-out, Williams came back to miraculously win the set 6-0 then go onto to take the match. This cost me well over 1k. Saying that, all it has done is wipe out my January profit. I can take this hit and start again. Any other questions or comments, let us know.

Btw, I have 2 Betfair accounts, so because this was such a bad week, I started to use my alternative account from the 24th onwards - so that's why you see 2 different accounts below.

Further to this Mets' Trading Diary quoted:

         A desperate plea

No, not from me but from John O'Dywer at his Betfair Profit and Loss blog. His latest post (which has since been removed from the website) highlights how dire things can get when you risk your entire bank on a "nailed on" outcome...

Basically, I've messed up big style. I have won consistently on Betfair in the past, making around 27k in total from February to September last year and was even lucky enough to go to Flushing Meadows in New York and Wimbledon for the tennis, but in the last month it has gone very wrong because I have taken far too many risks. And because of this I have lost my bank and now have no funds left to work with. :-(

I am writing this to ask if anyone out there would be so kind as to lend me some funds to start again so I can build it up slowly into the numbers I made last year. I am very confident, and if you could do this, I will not only pay you back, but I will give you a massive slice of any profit I make in future on Betfair - which I expect to do.

I know this is asking a lot as you do not know me, but I will totally make it worth your while in future if anyone could do this.

My email address is [deleted for privacy]


Frightening! It makes me want to shut up shop and quit while I'm ahead.


Mark said...

Hi Jason

I can understand what you mean in your last sentence.

"Frightening! It makes me want to shut up shop and quit while I'm ahead."

it just goes to show how important a good understanding of what psychological traps are in store for even experienced gamblers/traders

I believe that the two main ways for any gambler to avoid this situation is to have a good understanding of money management and a strict set of money management rules that MUST BE STUCK TO.

Equally important is a good understanding of the psychological forces that we expose ourselves to every time we enter a market.


HCE said...

It is a truly terrible situation to find oneself but it does prove - like you say - to take money management seriously. There is a thin line between success and failure but it clearly points to only betting what you can afford to lose. Hopefully John can get back to his former successes. It is a lesson to all bettors that there is no guarantees and care is needed.

Terrible news to hear of someone suffering such losses.