Wednesday 17 November 2010

Wednesday's Thoughts

12:50 Lingfield
A maiden for colts and fillies over this turning 6f where a low draw can be advantageous. Daffydowndilly - trained by Howie Morrison - sets the standard in what looks an average race. Quite a strong filly, this daughter of Oasis Dream is progressing with racing and has enough ability to win a race of this nature. This bay filly is one of the main contenders, however, she may be better suited by 7f and she is liable to be outpaced, which can cause problems around Lingfield. For this reason, Morisson's representative is likely to be a bigger price in-running and could finish the race well but may run out of time. The main opposition comes from the debutante Fastest Magician, a gelding by Johannesburg. Jeremy Noseda gave this two-year-old a Gimcrack (Group 2) entry at one stage and being a half-brother to Awesome Act must be respected. It is never easy to win on debut, especially a turning track. The trainer has about a 25% win rate with his fancied juveniles on their first start and over 50% place but it will be no easy task beating experienced opposition unless a talent or trained to the minute. Both the above mentioned have positives and negatives.

1:20 Lingfield
No strong views for this 0-75 nursery. Lady Bridget is likely to travel well although there may not be much to choose between her and Chestnut Coffee* at the finish through their running at Bath.

*NR

5:10 Kempton
A maiden over 7f. Not too many of interest here. It is difficult to assess the Godolphin representative Hunter's Light, although with nearly a 40% win rate with his two-year-old runners at the course over the last five years can hardly be faulted. Odin has been running quite well and seemed to progress again on his last start at Newmarket when behind Dogs May Bark. It might be the case that was on a par with his other efforts, which gives hope at this level but may be vulnerable to one of two again. Coax is fancied in the betting but will need to improve on his third at Ayr. Perhaps the heavy ground didn't suit, however, Johnston's youngster needs to show a greater level of form today. One of the main chances could be Indian Jack. Bailey's two-year-old was fancied on its second start but pulled up on very testing conditions but ran well over a mile at Nottingham. The form of that race is difficult to assess although it could well be fair with both the winner, Swindy, and third, Groomed, being fancied in the betting and clear of the fourth. What impressed that day was the ease with which Indian Jack travelled and this drop in distance could see this gelding by Indian Haven go well and certainly has place claims. If Kublahara is backed to single-figure odds, Balding's juvenile has fair place claims.

5:40 Kempton
Cape Classic cost a hefty 320,000gns and was fancied in the betting on debut but disappointed to some degree. The betting suggests Haggis' two-year-old will strip fitter today and has strong place claims. Sylas Ings looks to be regressing and struggles to get 7f so one to be wary of.

6:40 Kempton
A competitive 0-90 nursery but an open looking race. Barathea Dancer may have each way claims at speculative odds. A sizable filly by Barathea, and a battling type who will appreciate this drop in distance, from a good handler in Roger Teal.



Today's races:
12:20 Lingfield
12:50 Lingfield
1:20 Lingfield
5:10 Kempton
5:40 Kempton
6:40 Kempton