Wednesday 13 October 2010

Wednesday's Thoughts

2:00 Lingfield
A competitive heat for this maiden for colts and fillies over 7f with a number of fashionable/in-form stables represented. L'Hertitage has to be respected as the Meehan two-year-olds are in flying form and this son of Encosta De Lago is likely to improve from a fair debut at Newbury. The winner and second of that contest are talented juveniles and L'Hermitage was showing signs of inexperience before running on in the closing stages. Meehan does very well with his fancied runners on their second start and this home bred has strong place claims. The slight negative is a high draw (13), which can make life difficult on a turning course. Muntasib is held in high regard by his trainer and has been fancied on both starts. At $375,000 this is an expensive son of Mr Greeley and he will be primed for a big run today. The form of his last run at Sandown is pretty strong and this chestnut colt was still quite inexperienced. O'Shea gave a very considerate ride and didn't ask too many questions when the chance of winning had gone. At present, his form is fair but still a little difficult to assess but there could be improvement to come and if a length or two better than last time would have strong claims from a decent draw. Yojimbo was something of a surprise package when 2nd at odds of 33/1 on debut. That was a muddling race but Channon's two-year-old ran a fair race and has enough natural speed to sit in a handy position from a good draw (2). There is little doubt this grey colt will be there with a fighting chance at the furlong pole and if sneaking a lead may be difficult to peg back. The negative is that although one to respect Yojimbo is no more than an average horse and vulnerable to a talented individual suggesting once again he is more likely to be placed than win. It is worth noting, however, that this youngster is likely to make full use of a low draw and that factor alone makes this runner a threat especially if gaining an easy lead. Of the unraced, Medaille Dor and Obsession are worthy of respect, especially if fancied in the betting (13/2 & less) although at present both seem rather weak on the exchanges and may be better another day. Giles Bravery's Golden Compass may have a chance at a speculative price as this filly was fancied on debut but ran no race and been off course for a long time. It is encouraging that her trainer has entered her for a stakes race, which is a positive. A fascinating race where L'Hermitage, Muntasib and Yojimbo all have strong place claims.

2:30 Lingfield
Not a betting race for us but interested to see how Garde Cotiere goes in this. Noseda's Giant Causeway colt - a 500,000euros purchase - was fancied to run a big race on debut but never looked competitive. Perhaps the soft ground didn't suit. On form, beating the fancied runners such as Enabling and Cloud Rock looks a tall order. However, this two-year-old is held in high regard by connections and over this mile a big run is expected.

6:10 Kempton
Desperate prize money on offer for a Claiming race of such high calibre. Not a race type I would generally consider as a betting medium but Fifth Ave must must go close from a high draw (10). This attractive little filly is in fine form at present and should travel well and hopefully get on the rail. There are a few talented juveniles in this field (Bilko Pak and Rosina Grey) but they may struggle from unfavourable draws.

6:40 Kempton
Badeel must take all the beating today. His second behind the subsequent Group winner Abjer reads well and the drop in distance will benefit this El Prado colt.

7:10 Kempton
Circus Star has been well backed for this maiden and Meehan's two-year-olds are in cracking form. This American-bred colt was an unfancied 66/1 shot on debut but ran with encouragement. He looks an out and out galloper and clearly connection feel an improved performance will be seen today. On the exchanges the betting suggests it is a match between Circus Star and Laatafreet, trained by Saeed Bin Suroor. This son of Singspiel has been entered to run in a number of Stakes races of late and is likely to run a big race today.



Today's races:
2:00 Lingfield
2:30 Lingfield
6:10 Kempton
6:40 Kempton
7:10 Kempton
7:40 Kempton