Tuesday's Thoughts

1:30 Yarmouth
Heavy ground for this maiden over 7f(3y). Unless one of the outsiders love these extreme conditions, this looks a three-horse race. Long Awaited is an attractive colt, robust, and a fluent runner. By Pivotal, he is more likely than most to enjoy a softer surface. Jarvis' colt ran well on debut although it is difficult to assess the form at present, but it should be plenty good enough to go close in an average maiden. Long Awaited is the horse to beat. Above All is quite similar in looks to the favourite and ran a decent race last time albeit showing inexperience on his second start. Haggis does well with his two-year-olds and this colt has ability, however, the form of his Newbury second has taken a few knocks and more may be needed today. First Mohican - a relatively cheaply purchased colt for 17,000gns - should be respected but will need to have a good level of ability and be forward to press the favourites.

1:50 Catterick
A restricted auction race over this extended 5f(212y) on good to soft ground. A moderate race by all accounts and the lesser the horse the more unreliable they can be. It's You Again will be a short price because Hanagan is in the saddle. Whether this colt has enough ability to win a race of this nature is a matter of debate although there wasn't much strength in his second to stablemate Celtic Sixpence, who won with ease. One of few with a chance but still something to prove. *Ice Blast is the most likely winner for me although I am always slightly fearful of backing Mick Easterby's juveniles, especially when they seemingly run well at a big price. Ice Blast is quite a sizable colt and finishing on the heels of Rudegirl was a decent effort. He looked a big baby on debut and could improve for that effort. Norton Girl is quite a small filly and lightly built. Quinn's two-year-old was a 33/1 shot on debut at Beverley but run well in what was no more than an average race (very much like today's). Probably the most likely of all the form horses to run her race and has place claims but may be vulnerable to a stronger colt. Magnini has been relatively fancied on both starts and I get the feeling connections have held this gelding in some regard but been disappointed so far. There is a chance this two-year-old will be backed.

*NR

2:30 Yarmouth
Slightly surprising to see Sea Moon such a short price for his second start even after a fine debut effort at Leicester. A good-looking colt by Beat Hollow, he was a long way off the pace when running on with real vigour, just failing to catch the leader, Sadler's Risk. Clearly, Sir Michael Stoute's two-year-old has enough ability to win a maiden without too much effort but it may pay to be careful on such extreme going and with a few very expensive juveniles in opposition. Sadler's Risk is a fair horse but certainly no super star on his third behind Genius Beast. Perhaps he improved on that effort, which adds the merit of Sea Moon. Of the others with form, Little Rocky could have place claims. This home-bred colt ran well on debut when an 8/1 chance, finishing behind a fair juvenile in Defence Of Duress. With a couple of outsiders not being that far away, the form is probably no more than average, however, Simcock's runner made up a huge amount of ground - from last to second - and wasn't overly pressed and could well improve on that initial effort. The debutantes have a stiff task forfeiting experience on heavy ground but they are worth considering. Raw Spirit cost 160,000gns as a yearling and if one of Saeed Bin Suroor's better two-year-olds should be feared. Durante Alighieri, trained by Henry Cecil, cost a fortune as a yearling (475,000gns) and this son of Galileo is likely to have ability. Whether this colt is fit and ready today is another matter, but Cecil can win on debut and should be respected. An intriguing race.


Today's races:
1:30 Yarmouth
1:50 Catterick
2:00 Yarmouth
2:30 Yarmouth

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