Friday 8 October 2010

Friday's Thoughts

2:10 York
A sizable nursery over 6f. Not a race I would feel particularly confident about but Boundaries may have each-way claims. Tim Easterby's colt has been steadily climbing up the weights , which isn't ideal, but this youngster is a much better horse at 6f and ran with credit last time at Chester.

2:20 Musselburgh
This looks a three-horse race and an intriguing maiden. Qenaa sets the standard and her second at Goodwood over 6f is very strong form. That was a rather tactical race and turned into a sprint and even though Johnston's filly by Royal Applause has breeding to get the distance, it might not be guaranteed. Being off course for a couple months is a concern. In Babylon appeals as a great each-way bet if you can get 4/1+. Dascomb's colt by Oasis Dream was fancied to run well on debut and so he did but nothing much went right that day. After losing position, it was always going to be an up hill struggle on this turning course and In Babylon was very inexperienced and babyish. To be fair, Kingscote done remarkably well to get 2nd place after running wide on the home turn to have any chance of making the frame. Sir Robert Ogden is a prestigious owner for the Dascombe stable and this youngster is likely to improve significantly from that debut. A good looking, sturdy, colt - a big run can be expected today. It is difficult to assess the form of the Wolverhampton race. However, on balance, this two-year-old looks promising. Conducting hails from a stable that needs respecting on its second start, and especially when fancied in the betting. Brian Meehan's two-year-olds have been in good form of late and this step up to 7f should help this son of Oratorio. In truth, his performance at Newbury wasn't nothing special but it would be no surprise to see this deep-chested colt strip fitter today and another with sound each-way chances.

2:55 Musselburgh
A tricky race over this 5f but Crimson Knot has place claims and a fighting chance of a win.

5:50 Wolverhampton
A restricted auction race. Flag Officer is all the rage and not much value at even money favourite. Saeed Bin Suroor's colt by Dubai Destination ran a fair race on debut over course and distance and should run well again today. Show Rainbow improved on her debut with a strong run at Chester behind Humdrum, who has since run well in a big nursery. Not the easiest of horses to assess but Channon's youngster could well be a threat to the favourite. Entrance is an interesting selection and at 10/1 looks to have fair place claims. The race at Kempton when finishing 4th have given mixed reading, however, this daughter of Iceman has been relatively fancied on both starts and she is a fluent runner who could go well from a low draw. It would be no surprise to see this Ed Dunlop runner backed before the off.

6:20 Wolverhampton
Opera Dancer has run a number of very encouraging races and if at her best will take a lot of beating in this restricted auction race over 7f. There is a slight concern over the last race that Kirk's two-year-old may be regressing but this is difficult to assess although it is a worry to see her finish down the field in the big sales race. It is, however, a positive to see Hughes in the saddle and well backed. At best, a place would look like a formality and Gosden's debutante one of few dangers.

Today's races:
2:10 York
2:20 Musselburgh
2:55 Musselburgh
3:55 York
5:50 Wolverhampton
6:20 Wolverhampton
8:50 Wolverhampton