Saturday 7 August 2010

7:20 Lingfield

A maiden for colts and one filly over 1m.

Simon Dow has had his two-year-olds in good form and Tagansky improved a good deal from his debut to bustle up Introvert in a fair auction maiden. This colt by Barathea had to run wide for much of the race and made a strong challenge in the home straight to be held by the winner who is a fair two-year-old. It is a matter of opinion whether this extra furlong will suit or not but you have to consider the trainer knows best. This youngster should have plenty enough speed to sit in a handy position and has probably achieved the best form on show and must have place claims at least.

Of the others with form, Abjer comes out relatively quickly after a nice introduction at Doncaster, when not too far away, in a messy race. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the form of that contest hold up as Fabiello has since won and the first and second look progressive juveniles. Not the easiest of horses to assess at present but one for the short list.

Robert Mills has done well with his juveniles racing on the all-weather this season and Buxfizz could well be another two-year-old to note on his second start. A breeze-up purchase for 70,000gns, this colt by Elusive Quality was given an easy introduction at Sandown and still managed to show some ability before losing his place in the straight. This extra furlong is likely to suit. An entrant for the Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2), a more professional display should be seen today and if backed it would be an additional sign of encouragement.

Of the debutantes, Questioning and Tiger Webb are likely to figure at the top end of the betting.

Questioning cost 160,000gns. An American-bred and first foal. Gosden always deserves respect and a Royal lodge Stakes (Group 2) entry is a sign that this two-year-old may have ability. It is never easy for a juvenile to win on debut, especially on a turning track, although over this distance youngsters do have time to negate such inexperience over sprints. Gosden has a fair win and place rate with his fancied two-year-olds when making their race course bow.

Henry Cecil has been pretty quiet with his two-year-olds, this being his 5th runner of the season. A 65,000gns colt by Hurricane Run and grandson of One So Wonderful, catches the eye. Cecil's juveniles often run well on debut but generally fail to get their head in front and feature about a 13% win rate with debutantes in recent years.

Tip: 7:20 Lingfield - Buzzfizz 1PTEW (6/1) 6th
Comment: 'Probably turned out to be a decent race but a disappointing effort from Buxfizz who was well backed but sadly didn't achieve what was expected. A statistical bet that normal go well.'

Other races:
1:55 Redacr
2:35 Newmarket
3:40 Redcar
3:45 Newmarket
4:00 Haydock
6:10 Ayr