The two-year-old season is always pretty slow to get started and with our selective approach it can often seem like a waiting game. From following a number of blogs I know many readers will be expecting tips on a daily basis. H.C.E has a very selective approach.
Unlike following older horses, the two-year-olds naturally take time to make their appearance on course. With a limited number of racing opportunities over the first few weeks of the season, and with time needed to assess form lines, it simply isn't possible to force the issue searching for betting opportunities.
As the season progresses you will find that it becomes busier by the month and bets will become more regular. Even at peak times we may only detail a small number of bets each week. I would rather wait for a good, strong bet, or a decent speculative wager than feel obliged to make any number of selections just because that's how others work. Each to their own, that's what I say.
What H.C.E has to offer is a unique perspective on two-year-old racing. All aspects of our blog try to offer something that cannot be found in many of the leading publications - an insight that details those little gems of wisdom which make for an interesting read.
As always, H.C.E would like to thank everyone for their support.
Tuesday, 31 March 2009
2:20 Folkestone
A chance to test a form line with Bould Mover taking part in this Folkestone maiden after finishing a running-on 4th to Star Rover.
Although all of these juveniles are cheap purchases, this race has featured a number of capable two-year-olds in its time. It will be interesting to see how the Curtis-trained youngster, Bould Mover, fares. This Kyllachy colt didn't look the most fluent of runners although this may have simply been down to inexperience on debut. A strong, deep-chested sort this will be a race where they want to make their racing advantage count. When competing at Kempton, he took a while to get into his running. It is a possibility this colt could be outpace again.
Maoi Chinn Tire (J.S.Moore) & Black Baccara (P.S.McEntee) were both entered to run in the Brocklesby stakes. Moore won this race in 2007 with Nikindi. However, he has a poor win rate with debutants and not very successful with juveniles in his own colours. Rod Millman ran Sauze D'Oulx in this race in 2007, which went on to win second time out. Alphacino trained by M. Channon and Bill Turner's Anjomarba are amongst the favourites in the betting so they are certainly worth noting.
The main point of interest here is simply to see how Bould Mover goes with regard to future form lines.
A watching race.
Race review: 'The field was strung out and Bould Mover wasn't up to winning what looks to be a poor race. Black Baccara managed to pip Tom Folan on the line. The later named was also an entrant for the Brocklesby, so they have been an intersting pointer. McEntee suggested that the winner would be put away with thoughts of the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. This race looked quite modest but time will tell.'
Full result: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=477145&r_date=2009-03-31&popup=yes
Although all of these juveniles are cheap purchases, this race has featured a number of capable two-year-olds in its time. It will be interesting to see how the Curtis-trained youngster, Bould Mover, fares. This Kyllachy colt didn't look the most fluent of runners although this may have simply been down to inexperience on debut. A strong, deep-chested sort this will be a race where they want to make their racing advantage count. When competing at Kempton, he took a while to get into his running. It is a possibility this colt could be outpace again.
Maoi Chinn Tire (J.S.Moore) & Black Baccara (P.S.McEntee) were both entered to run in the Brocklesby stakes. Moore won this race in 2007 with Nikindi. However, he has a poor win rate with debutants and not very successful with juveniles in his own colours. Rod Millman ran Sauze D'Oulx in this race in 2007, which went on to win second time out. Alphacino trained by M. Channon and Bill Turner's Anjomarba are amongst the favourites in the betting so they are certainly worth noting.
The main point of interest here is simply to see how Bould Mover goes with regard to future form lines.
A watching race.
Race review: 'The field was strung out and Bould Mover wasn't up to winning what looks to be a poor race. Black Baccara managed to pip Tom Folan on the line. The later named was also an entrant for the Brocklesby, so they have been an intersting pointer. McEntee suggested that the winner would be put away with thoughts of the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. This race looked quite modest but time will tell.'
Full result: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=477145&r_date=2009-03-31&popup=yes
Monday, 30 March 2009
3:00 Lingfield
A quiet day on the two-year-old front with just one race at Lingfield all-weather meeting. Being a maiden auction fillies' stakes for juveniles purchased for 28000gns or less doesn't indicate a race of too much merit, but you can never be so critical of any individual at such an early stage of their career.
I notice that the Ian Williams juvenile, My Mandy, was entered to run in the Brocklesby on Saturday 28th, March. It remains to be seen whether this has any significance as Williams isn't renowned for training two-year-olds. However, I notice the Horses In Training 2009 publication details that he has eight juveniles this year of which seven are owned by Dr Marwan Koukash. This is certainly a promising partnership for Williams Dominion Racing Stables and an element of interest in this race.
A watching race for me.
Race review: 'To be fair this had the look of a poor race. A pre-race interview with Stan Moore suggested that French Connexion was the better of his two although you have to take such comments with a pinch of salt at times. However, French Connexion had little chance of success after running very wide on the final bend then run on well. Leleyf, trained by Mick Channon, just got up in the final strides to overhaul Moore's other runner Emma Jean lass. Ian Williams, My Mandy, was slow away and run on quite well. I would imagine many of these juveniles will continue to run in this grade if not selling class. '
Full result: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=477133&r_date=2009-03-30&popup=yes
I notice that the Ian Williams juvenile, My Mandy, was entered to run in the Brocklesby on Saturday 28th, March. It remains to be seen whether this has any significance as Williams isn't renowned for training two-year-olds. However, I notice the Horses In Training 2009 publication details that he has eight juveniles this year of which seven are owned by Dr Marwan Koukash. This is certainly a promising partnership for Williams Dominion Racing Stables and an element of interest in this race.
A watching race for me.
Race review: 'To be fair this had the look of a poor race. A pre-race interview with Stan Moore suggested that French Connexion was the better of his two although you have to take such comments with a pinch of salt at times. However, French Connexion had little chance of success after running very wide on the final bend then run on well. Leleyf, trained by Mick Channon, just got up in the final strides to overhaul Moore's other runner Emma Jean lass. Ian Williams, My Mandy, was slow away and run on quite well. I would imagine many of these juveniles will continue to run in this grade if not selling class. '
Full result: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=477133&r_date=2009-03-30&popup=yes
Sunday, 29 March 2009
Hearts Of Fire - Brocklesby Winner
2.10 DoncasterSo the first two-year-old race of the season, the Brocklesby, has come and gone. As usual, it was a difficult race to assess with no form and only general trainer statistics and trends to pinpoint a few juveniles of interest. I won't waffle on about the merits of too many individuals as time is needed to review the race and form lines to emerge from the melee.
I was a pleasantly surprised to see Pat Eddery train the winner as over the last few seasons he has achieved 0% win rate from 24 runners on debut. The tide always turns at some point, and he certainly achieved a notable result in bagging the Brocklesby to inaugurate his season. In truth, the Pat Eddery Racing syndicate has only attained limited success with winners such as Cavort and Replicator coming to mind. Hearts Of Fire has the potential to be the best juvenile he has trained and there is already talk of Royal Ascot. Clearly connections fancied their chances as the colt had been for a prep race at an all-weather course. It was backed and received a few good words from paddock watchers. The Brocklesby winner often fails to attain greater success but it would be fitting to see Eddery achieve a fraction of the success as a trainer as he did as a jockey.
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Full result: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=476630&r_date=2009-03-28&popup=yes
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4.10 Kempton:
Star Rover, trained by David Evans, ran out an easy winner of the 5f maiden at the odd of 12/1. It is interesting that this Camacho colt out of a mare by Pips Pride was also entered to run in the Brocklesby Stakes. This may have been a pointer to its chances. Interestingly, a third juvenile, Jack My Boy, was also entered for the Brocklesby and is yet unraced. I would imagine all three have been working together and time will tell whether each can attain a win.
The race didn't look the most competitive of affairs although you can never be sure until the form has time to settle. Star Rover certainly looks a precocious type. Evans always has one or two decent juveniles and he wasted no time unwrapping this early-season winner.
Full result: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=476639&r_date=2009-03-28&popup=yes
Saturday, 28 March 2009
Group Entries made easy
I have referred to Group-entered juveniles on many occasions and detailed below are the major group race entries for two-year-old colts and fillies. Each race has its own reference numbers e.g. (19 for Coventry Stakes Group 3) and a handy way of detailing entries for future and past engagements. It should be noted that group race fixtures have differing declaration stages. In general the first entry stage will be detailed. At certain points within the season I may detail a juvenile with a number of Group entries and this format can be used for easy reference. For example, last year Mick Channon's filly, Danidh Dubai, would have been detailed accordingly: Danidh Dubai: M,30,20,6,5,1,2.
Group entries & significant race types
1 Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1), 2 Hoover Fillies’ Mile (Group 1), 3 Richmond Stakes (Group 2), 4 Flying Childers (Group 2), 5 Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3), 6 Lowther Stakes (Group 2) 7 Solario Stakes (Group 3), 8 Vintage Stakes (Group 2), 9 Champagne Stakes (Group 2), 10 Prestige Stakes (Group 3), 11 Middle Park Stakes (Group 1), 12 Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2), 13 Racing Post Trophy (Group 1), 14 Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2), 15 Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2), 16 Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1), 17 Queen Mary Stakes (Group 3), 18 Norfolk Stakes (Group 3), 19 Coventry Stakes (Group 3), 20 Cherry Hinton Stakes (Group 3), 21 July Stakes (Group 3) 22 Molecombe Stakes (Group 3), 23 Rockfel Stakes (Group 2), 24 Corn Wallis Stakes (Group3), 25 Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3), 27 Mayhill Stakes (Group 2), 29 Railway Stakes (Group 2), 30 Albany Stakes (Group 3), AC Acombe Stakes (Group 3), PH Phoenix Stakes (Group 1), M Moyglare Stakes (Group 1).
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CV Convivial Maiden (York), St (Denotes Stakes Races), St (B) Brocklesby Stakes, St (L) Lilly Agnes Stakes, St (BY) Brian Yeardly.
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L (Denotes Listed races), L (WC) Woodcote Stakes, L (C) Chesham Stakes, L (W) Windsor Castle Stakes.
Group entries & significant race types
1 Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1), 2 Hoover Fillies’ Mile (Group 1), 3 Richmond Stakes (Group 2), 4 Flying Childers (Group 2), 5 Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3), 6 Lowther Stakes (Group 2) 7 Solario Stakes (Group 3), 8 Vintage Stakes (Group 2), 9 Champagne Stakes (Group 2), 10 Prestige Stakes (Group 3), 11 Middle Park Stakes (Group 1), 12 Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2), 13 Racing Post Trophy (Group 1), 14 Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2), 15 Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2), 16 Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1), 17 Queen Mary Stakes (Group 3), 18 Norfolk Stakes (Group 3), 19 Coventry Stakes (Group 3), 20 Cherry Hinton Stakes (Group 3), 21 July Stakes (Group 3) 22 Molecombe Stakes (Group 3), 23 Rockfel Stakes (Group 2), 24 Corn Wallis Stakes (Group3), 25 Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3), 27 Mayhill Stakes (Group 2), 29 Railway Stakes (Group 2), 30 Albany Stakes (Group 3), AC Acombe Stakes (Group 3), PH Phoenix Stakes (Group 1), M Moyglare Stakes (Group 1).
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CV Convivial Maiden (York), St (Denotes Stakes Races), St (B) Brocklesby Stakes, St (L) Lilly Agnes Stakes, St (BY) Brian Yeardly.
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L (Denotes Listed races), L (WC) Woodcote Stakes, L (C) Chesham Stakes, L (W) Windsor Castle Stakes.
Tuesday, 24 March 2009
Start of flat racing season 2009
The first two-year-old races of the season are posted, below, for Saturday, 28th March 2009.
I had a quick look at the entries for the WILLIAMHILL.COM - PLAY POKER BROCKLESBY CONDITIONS STAKES (CLASS 4) (2yo) 2.10 Doncaster. At the five day declaration stage there are 42 entrants. It is interesting to see a number of jockeys already booked to ride their mounts.
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At the 48-hour declarations there are 22 runners for the Brocklesby Conditional Stakes with a win prize money of £11,333. The field mainly consists of small stables and relatively cheap juveniles. The most expensive being Chicita Banana trained by George Baker (60,000gns) and Swilly Ferry by B.W.Hills (58,000gbp). The interesting juveniles being: Archers Road (M.Channon), Bond Together (P.D.Evans), Could It Be Magic (W.G.M Turner), Eight Hours (R.A.Fahey), Swilly Ferry (B.W.Hills) & Chicita Banana (George Baker). These will unsurprisingly be the main protagonists in the betting. I have no particular interest other than reiterating that there will be a few winners come from the race. Looking forward to watching it - the season will soon be on its way.
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Additionally, the LIVE CASINO GAMES @ WILLIAMHILL.COM EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 4) (2yo) 4.10 Kempton.
It is worth keeping a copy of the Brocklesby entries as they often pinpoint talented juveniles, even if they forfeit their chance to take part (see bottom of page).
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In detailing these entries I am not so much interested in their success or failure in the Brocklesby but simply noting that such declarations have often been a positive sign for their respective trainers in a historical context. It's difficult to have resounding confidence in a trainer with numerous declarations as this may dilute the likelihood of them having ability. In such cases the juvenile competing in the Brocklesby deserves most respect.
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P.D.Evans has done well with his juvenile entrants for past years with Silver Wind & Calypso Girl both attaining wins as two-year-olds. Bill Turner generally places his best juvenile in this race & Channon has had many decent two-year-olds make their debut in the Brocklesby. However, all entrants are worthy of note as this race does hold significance.
As I have mentioned before, the Brocklesby is just a watching race for me. There will be a fair number of winners come from this race - so it's worth remembering those originally entered or who take part.
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I found an interesting study covering a 12-year period to 2002 regarding the performance of Brocklesby contenders. Over this period only two fillies won and no winning juvenile was priced over 18/1. Again, colts were successful in 2006 & 2007. However, last year's winner was a filly, Sally's Dilemma, priced 7/1. Clearly, there are more colts/geldings featured in this race so fillies are at a disadvantage. The majority of winners in the 12-year period came from 5th,6th,7th position in the betting. However, in the last 3 years all winning juveniles have been priced 7/1 & less.
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Brocklesby Conditional Stakes Result: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=476630&r_date=2009-03-28&popup=yes
Sunday, 22 March 2009
Selling and Claiming race alert!
As part of my general studies I cut and paste all of the two-year-old 48-hour race declarations as they can be a mine of information. Not only are they interesting because they give ample time to consider the likely protagonists of any given race, they also identify anomalies such as jockey changes between a stable's first and second string and even jockeys' changing mounts from one stable to another. Clearly these points have to be considered with an open mind as there may be a number of reasons for such conflict. However, this information is interesting as it gives an indication of what a trainer or jockey may have in mind - to a point where it suggests their mount has a greater chance of winning.
One particularly interesting angle is to review the 48-hour declarations for two-year-old Selling and Claiming races when juveniles are making their debuts. The reason why this is so informative is that many do not actually run in these events but find themselves running in maiden or auction maiden events at a later date. The point being, that unless you make a conscious decision to note these individuals, you are very unlikely to realise that they have been entered to run at this lower grade. Now I am not saying conclusively that every juvenile entered to run in a Selling or Claiming event is a hopeless case with little hope of attaining success beyond that level. From our studies of group-entered juveniles we have seen a number of juveniles win at Selling level and actually contest group races. However, this is far from the norm and to all purposes is very unlikely. The vast majority of juveniles entered for Selling and Claiming races, which actually run in maiden races on debut, soon return to this lower level.
Over the past few years I have seen a number of juveniles following this pattern and surprisingly many are based with the larger more successful trainers such as M. Channon (see photo), P. D. Evens, B. Meehan to name a few. What is even more interesting is that because of their significance, especially within two-year-old racing, these juveniles are often priced at relatively short odds. Clearly they are priced with the trainer's general success in mind rather than the specific horse which features such conflicting status: being entered for a Selling/Claiming race but running in a maiden. I have noticed many juveniles following this pattern who fail to show they are anything beyond a plating horse.
Clearly this freely-available data can highlight the trainer's thoughts in a way that few punters could ever hope to glimpse. In the same way that group-entered two-year-olds may bestow a greater level of ability in winning a race, juveniles entered at such lowly levels may additionally suggest that the world may not be their oyster. For this reason, I will note these juveniles when they feature such conflicting entries.
Keep an eye open for the Selling and Claiming ALERT!
Saturday, 21 March 2009
Tuesday, 17 March 2009
Saturday, 14 March 2009
Preparing for the new flat season
The start of the flat season is only a couple of weeks away now. It is a strange time; a kind of limbo where I just want to see the first declarations for the Brocklesby and eagerly scan a list of new horse names, the juveniles of 2009. It is the beginning of a long season and that's why I have a laid back approach. It is important to enjoy the racing and try not get too caught up with the highs and lows of betting.
The basis to any success, I believe, is consistency. That is why I always rattle on about the need to have an answer to a question - especially when it comes to betting. It's too easy to have some kind of knee-jerk reaction and find you have kicked out your own teeth. I try to spend most of my time reviewing the two-year-old races to get a feel for the form and individuals. Some races don't take much time to assess, while others take an age and it's simply a matter of wait and see.
I have ordered the Horses In Training 2009 publication. It helps to gain an idea of juvenile numbers for each trainer. There are also a few owners I look out for. Some are very selective and from what I have seen over the years if they actually train a juvenile to the point of it racing, they are very likely to have ability such is their selectivity.
As I have said before, our season at H.C.E is always slow to start. I generally find it takes a few weeks for the trainers to gain some idea of what they have in the two-year-old ranks let alone the enthusiast watching at home, bookmakers or course. There isn't any rush. Generally the early juveniles with a glimmer of form (4th, 5th & 6th placings etc) are often forced favourites on their next start and disappoint.
I am more interested in a select number of trainers who I know year on year have a decent string of two-year-olds. There are a number of trainers who, for what ever reason, simply never train two-year-old winners. Most are capable if they are lucky enough to handle a talented juvenile. I always smile at the thought of a small trainer finding a gem. What a wonderful feeling that must be. On a personal note, it was lovely to see Pam Sly attain such goals with Speciosa as she trains in the small town of Thorney, which is in the Fens, near to where I live. I can't help but side with the underdog.
Another book well worth its money is Steve Taplin's Two Years Olds of 2009. The trainer comments are always worth a look and although you can't bank on every positive comment being realised, all of these aspects help to build a bigger picture.
The basis to any success, I believe, is consistency. That is why I always rattle on about the need to have an answer to a question - especially when it comes to betting. It's too easy to have some kind of knee-jerk reaction and find you have kicked out your own teeth. I try to spend most of my time reviewing the two-year-old races to get a feel for the form and individuals. Some races don't take much time to assess, while others take an age and it's simply a matter of wait and see.
I have ordered the Horses In Training 2009 publication. It helps to gain an idea of juvenile numbers for each trainer. There are also a few owners I look out for. Some are very selective and from what I have seen over the years if they actually train a juvenile to the point of it racing, they are very likely to have ability such is their selectivity.
As I have said before, our season at H.C.E is always slow to start. I generally find it takes a few weeks for the trainers to gain some idea of what they have in the two-year-old ranks let alone the enthusiast watching at home, bookmakers or course. There isn't any rush. Generally the early juveniles with a glimmer of form (4th, 5th & 6th placings etc) are often forced favourites on their next start and disappoint.
I am more interested in a select number of trainers who I know year on year have a decent string of two-year-olds. There are a number of trainers who, for what ever reason, simply never train two-year-old winners. Most are capable if they are lucky enough to handle a talented juvenile. I always smile at the thought of a small trainer finding a gem. What a wonderful feeling that must be. On a personal note, it was lovely to see Pam Sly attain such goals with Speciosa as she trains in the small town of Thorney, which is in the Fens, near to where I live. I can't help but side with the underdog.
Another book well worth its money is Steve Taplin's Two Years Olds of 2009. The trainer comments are always worth a look and although you can't bank on every positive comment being realised, all of these aspects help to build a bigger picture.
Thursday, 12 March 2009
H.C.E FREE TRIAL
In raising the profile of H.C.E all you need to think is what we are giving away - 100% free!
H.C.E doesn't want to settle for being one of the field, we want to show you what we have to offer: a good, honest information service that's dedicated to pinpointing the best two-year-olds in training.
A few information services offer a free tips trial period while others expect you to pay for the simple promise of a winner or two. H.C.E appreciates that a successful business is built on trust & and that takes time. We want you to learn how we work and build a confidence that brings success. For this reason we are willing to detail to you each and every selection - for the whole season. Simply watch the highs and lows of the racing year and take your time to consider our worth.
H.C.E prides itself on being different. We don't give you umpteen bets to follow each day and have a very selective approach. Make no mistake if you were paying for this service it would be expensive. H.C.E have big plans building a truly premium service. We are specialists in the field of two-year-old racing and that is why we have an advantage - a niche market.
ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS FOLLOW THIS BLOG.
H.C.E doesn't want to settle for being one of the field, we want to show you what we have to offer: a good, honest information service that's dedicated to pinpointing the best two-year-olds in training.
A few information services offer a free tips trial period while others expect you to pay for the simple promise of a winner or two. H.C.E appreciates that a successful business is built on trust & and that takes time. We want you to learn how we work and build a confidence that brings success. For this reason we are willing to detail to you each and every selection - for the whole season. Simply watch the highs and lows of the racing year and take your time to consider our worth.
H.C.E prides itself on being different. We don't give you umpteen bets to follow each day and have a very selective approach. Make no mistake if you were paying for this service it would be expensive. H.C.E have big plans building a truly premium service. We are specialists in the field of two-year-old racing and that is why we have an advantage - a niche market.
ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS FOLLOW THIS BLOG.
Wednesday, 11 March 2009
Group-entered two-year-olds
Posted, below, is a fascinating article published in the Sporting Life Weekender (May 14th, 1994) by Nick Mordin’s Systems titled: In a Class of Their Own.
This original data, formulated by the founder of High Class Equine, Tony Coote, reveals the significance of Group-entered juveniles, which still to this day feature within our research and insight. Mordin wrote: ‘His analysis of Group race entries is the best I have ever seen. It reveals fundamental insights that no-one has ever made or even attempted to make before.’
This original data, formulated by the founder of High Class Equine, Tony Coote, reveals the significance of Group-entered juveniles, which still to this day feature within our research and insight. Mordin wrote: ‘His analysis of Group race entries is the best I have ever seen. It reveals fundamental insights that no-one has ever made or even attempted to make before.’
Tuesday, 10 March 2009
In a class of their own
How to spot and back potential top-notch two-year-olds.
Originally published in the Sporting Life Weekender by Nick Mordin (May 14th, 1994)
THE WEEKENDER has carried Group race entries for quite some time now. And I know many punters and quite a few racing journalists refer to them frequently. One reader, however, has gone a great deal further. Tony Coote of March, in Cambridgeshire, has carried out a massive five-year study of Group race entries and has come up with some extremely thought-provoking findings.
Tony Coote has very generously allowed me to publish his findings in The Weekender and I’m sure you will find them as fascinating as I have. They reveal for the first time the true significance of a Group race entry and what relevance it has to a horse’s chances in any given race.
Tony Coote restricted his study to two-year-olds holding Group entries on the grounds that they would provide a larger number runners, particularly I think, unexposed ones in lower-class contests. After all, what does it matter if Hatoof, Dernier Empereur, Las Mininas, King’s Theatre and Mister Baileys hold Group race entries. It’s only what you’d expect.
But if a runner in a two-year-old maiden race at Beverley has a future entry in a Group contest things begin to look rather more interesting. The horse is probably a lot better than it looks at first glance.
In his study, Tony Coote included all two-year-olds that were entered in Group races from 1988 to 1992. But he didn’t restrict his attention to horses whose Group race entry was known at the time of running. He also included runners whose entry was made at a later date. I would estimate that he nearly doubled the number of qualifiers by doing this but I don’t think it invalidates his findings in any way. It may have helped to boost the overall winning percentages of qualifiers, but it also increased the size and therefore the reliability of his survey.
The first thing that stands out in the survey is the terrific frequency with which Group-entered two-year-olds score on their first starts. Readers will know that several previous surveys I have carried out show two-year-olds winning only about 60 per cent as often on their racecourse debuts as they do on later starts. This doesn’t happen with Group-entered two-year-olds. They win only fractionally less on their debuts than they do in later runs (27.2 per cent of the time as against 28.2 per cent).
I think the reason for this is that these two-year-olds, like most others, normally have their first run in maiden races. But their Group entries indicate that they will later be running in much higher class contests. The maiden races are obviously easier for them to win, so this offsets their lack of experience and fitness.
I would not leap to the conclusion, however, that Group-entered two-year-olds are all worth betting on their debuts. They may win 27.2 per cent of the time but you’d have to obtain average odds of about 3-1 to make a profit backing them and I don’t think you’d quite do that. Tony Coote did not unfortunately include starting prices in his survey, but I’d imagine the average Group-entered debutant would start at closer to 2-1 than 3-1.
To make profits from two-year-old debutants it seems we have to lower our sights, or at least the trainers have to lower theirs. This is because Tony Cote’s survey shows that the likelihood of a successful racecourse debut is strongly influenced by the class of the course a horse runs at.
Nearly 80 per cent of Group-entered two-year-olds make their debuts on Grade One courses where they face the strongest competition. They win just 23.1 per cent of the time and their poor performance drags down the figure for these horses as a whole.
When you look at the 20 per cent or so of these horses who start their careers at lower grade tracks, things start to look a great deal more interesting. The lower the grade of track, the more often they win, as you can see from the table, showing class of track and comparing first time out with later runs:
-------------------Runs-------------wins-------------%
Grade 1
1st time..........1,136................262.............23.1
Later..............2,246................524.............23.3
Grade 2
1st time..........177...................56................31.6
Later...............517..................187..............36.2
Grade 3
1st time..........307.................111................36.2
Later..............549..................191...............34.8
Grade 4
1st time.........63.....................28................44.4
Later.............204...................90................44.1
In completing this table, I followed the official grading of courses produced by the Jockey Club.
Grade 1: Ascot, Ayr, Doncaster, Epsom, Haydock, Kempton, Newbury, Newcastle, Newmarket, Sandown, York.
Grade 2: Brighton, Chester, Lingfield, Redcar, Ripon, Salisbury, Thirsk.
Grade 3: Bath, Beverley, Chepstow, Hamilton, Leicester, Nottingham, Pontefract, Windsor, Yarmouth.
Grade 4: Carlisle, Catterick, Edinburgh, Folkestone, Southwell, Warwick, Wolverhampton.
Obviously, a two-year-old that holds a Group entry is worth very serious consideration if it is running outside a major track. They win around 36.5 per cent of the time, both on their debuts and on later starts.
If the class of the track affects a horse’s chances of winning so does the class of race Tony Coote’s figures for all runs by Group-entered two-year-olds show that the lower the class of race, the more likely they are to win.
Race type--------runs----------wins------------percentage
Seller.................18...............8.....................44.4
Claimer.............19...............8.....................42.1
Auction.............180............70....................38.9
Maiden.............2,473.........767..................31.0
Stakes..............1,425.........433..................30.4
Grp/Listed........1,172...........191..................16.3
Clearly, if a Group-entered two-year-old runs outside of that sort of class it has a big chance of winning, and the lower the class the bigger the chance. This is particularly true of debutants. They won only 19 per cent of the time (59 wins from 299 runs) when they made their first starts in Stakes races. And only one of the Group-entered two-year-olds that actually ran in Group or Listed company on their debuts managed to score.
What this means is that while a Group-entered two-year-old has a 36.5 per cent chance of winning when it runs outside of a Grade 1 track, it probably has a 40 per cent chance of succeeding if it runs in a maiden or a lower-class contest at a Grade 2,3 or 4 venue. In other words, you can make a profit betting them if you can simply get better than 6-4.
And that’s not all. There are a few variations in the figures, but basically they show that a Group-entered two-year-old’s chance of success improves still further the earlier it is run. This must be because the strength of competition in two-year-old races increases steadily throughout the season. The cheap, early speedsters dominate in the early months but by the time the autumn comes around the juveniles with real classic potential start to make their debuts and our Group-entered two-year-olds have a harder time winning. This shows up clearly in the statistics.
--------------------Runs-------------------Wins------------Percentage
March...............16...........................8............................50.0
April..................147.........................51..........................34.7
May...................466........................192........................41.2
June..................862.........................256.......................29.7
July...................985.........................312.......................31.7
August..............891.........................240.......................26.9
September.......990.........................229.......................23.1
October............936..........................180......................19.2
November........99.............................19.......................19.2
What I find most interesting about these figures is that those for March and April are low when compared with May. I mentioned earlier that Tony Coote included two-year-olds whose Group race entries were made after their runs. The first Group race entries are not made until May. So the fact that the figures for March and April are lower indicates that if anything, the horses whose Group race entry is known at the time they run do better that those whose Group entry is made later.
Another interesting finding from Tony Coote’s survey confirms something I discovered some time ago – namely that most of the best two-year-olds make their debuts at a very select group of tracks. According to Tony Coote’s statistics more than half of the Group-entered two-year-olds made their racecourse debuts at Ascot, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket or Yarmouth.
I think the reason for this is that all of these tracks, barring Ascot, are close to major training centres. Obviously trainers are keen to give their best horses the least stressful experience possible on their debuts, so they run them at their nearest tracks. They run them at Ascot simply because that course offers fantastically high prize-money.
The statistics for Yarmouth are quite extraordinary. This Grade 3 course attracts more Group-entered debutantes than many Grade 1 courses, but they don’t often return there for their later starts. It seems to be used by nearby Newmarket trainers for giving their better two-year-olds an easy win on their first starts. About half the two-year-old events at the course are won by Newmarket-trained debutantes.
Those are the main findings from Tony Coote’s survey. There are many more. Coote is, for example, very keen on analysing the significance of the trainer in relation to Group race entries. He tells me that Henry Cecil, for example, wins much more frequently than average with his Group-entered two-year-olds while, not surprisingly, Clive Brittain has a hit rate that is significantly below average. Obviously some trainers are over optimistic when making Group entries and you need to adjust your expectations in line with this.
I dare say there are many more angles that could be explored, particularly those relating to distance and pedigree. I would anticipate that horses would win most often when entered at close to the distance of the race they hold a Group entry for. I’d think the better-bred horses would win more frequently too.
Coote tells me he’s going to look at some of these ideas and may get around to publishing then for next season. I certainly hope he does because his analysis of Group race entries is the best I have ever seen. It reveals fundamental insights that no-one has ever made or even attempted to make before.
If you’d like to profit from them, remember these main findings:
Two-year-olds that hold Group race entries have a much bigger chance of making a successful racecourse debut than those that don’t.
Two-year-olds with Group race entries don’t win often enough at Grade 1 tracks to be worth betting blindly.
Two-year-olds with Group race entries win 36.5 per cent of the time when they run outside of Grade 1 tracks.
Two-year-olds, even those holding future Group race entries, are poor bets when they make their debuts in Stakes races, and rarely win if their first start is in a Group or Listed race.
Group-entered two-year-olds win more often in lower class races. In maiden and lower class races at Grade 2, 3 and 4 tracks they score about 40 per cent of the time.
Two-year-olds with Group entries win less often as a season progresses and the strength of competition increases.
Wednesday, 4 March 2009
Brocklesby dream...
Having had a quick look at the racing calender I noticed the first two-year-old event of the season is the traditional Brocklesby Conditions Stakes at Doncaster, 28th March. It is a fascinating race and one I always look forward to watching. I like the illogical nature of having a conditional stakes race with a bumper winning prize of £10,000+ for starters. It must warm the heart and hands of owners, trainers & stable lads on cold winter mornings who dare to dream that this year it may be their turn to have the best-raced juvenile for a while.
For me the Brocklesby is a race to watch rather than bet. With its usual large field and potential draw bias, combined with juveniles of differing levels of fitness and ability, it can be a tricky race that takes delight in hiding a few gems while past winners often seem tarnished and struggle to attain the highs of listed or group success.
To be fair, the Brocklesby form usually holds up and you can pretty much guarantee there will be a few juveniles leaving their debut runs behind wanting to learn what that winner's enclosure is all about.
I always keep a look out for a Bill Turner runner as he has a good record in the race, training last year's winner Sally's Dilemma, which generally turns out to be a fair measure of the rest of his juveniles. Last years race featured a few decent juveniles. Doncaster Rover, Knavesmire, Riflessione, Calypso Girl, Richo, Bad Beat... all managed to gain at least one win. The star of the race being 9th placed Saxford, trained by Mrs L Stubbs, who went on to win a listed race and narrowly lost out in the Prix Eclipse (Group 3) in Chantilly, France. Considering Saxford has won almost £50,000 in prize money perhaps the Brocklesby dream isn't such a forlorn hope as I imagined. Saxford, just like the Stubbs, has a battling attitude which rightfully deserves success.
The Brocklesby is one of those races that teasingly lets you find the key to the treasure chest which may or may not hold a king's ransom. But much more than the reality of what we may find is that eternal feeling of hope, that dare to dream mentality, that each and everyone of us know all too well as the old slate is wiped clean and we stand with chalk in hand. It is the starting point of a long season where transient moods are felt by both man and beast. The realisation that there will be times we would rather not remember and days we hope never to forget.
For some that dream will shine in winning eyes; but do not despair if you lose, as Saxford proved, sometimes the best dreams take time to form.
For me the Brocklesby is a race to watch rather than bet. With its usual large field and potential draw bias, combined with juveniles of differing levels of fitness and ability, it can be a tricky race that takes delight in hiding a few gems while past winners often seem tarnished and struggle to attain the highs of listed or group success.
To be fair, the Brocklesby form usually holds up and you can pretty much guarantee there will be a few juveniles leaving their debut runs behind wanting to learn what that winner's enclosure is all about.
I always keep a look out for a Bill Turner runner as he has a good record in the race, training last year's winner Sally's Dilemma, which generally turns out to be a fair measure of the rest of his juveniles. Last years race featured a few decent juveniles. Doncaster Rover, Knavesmire, Riflessione, Calypso Girl, Richo, Bad Beat... all managed to gain at least one win. The star of the race being 9th placed Saxford, trained by Mrs L Stubbs, who went on to win a listed race and narrowly lost out in the Prix Eclipse (Group 3) in Chantilly, France. Considering Saxford has won almost £50,000 in prize money perhaps the Brocklesby dream isn't such a forlorn hope as I imagined. Saxford, just like the Stubbs, has a battling attitude which rightfully deserves success.
The Brocklesby is one of those races that teasingly lets you find the key to the treasure chest which may or may not hold a king's ransom. But much more than the reality of what we may find is that eternal feeling of hope, that dare to dream mentality, that each and everyone of us know all too well as the old slate is wiped clean and we stand with chalk in hand. It is the starting point of a long season where transient moods are felt by both man and beast. The realisation that there will be times we would rather not remember and days we hope never to forget.
For some that dream will shine in winning eyes; but do not despair if you lose, as Saxford proved, sometimes the best dreams take time to form.
Monday, 2 March 2009
Staking and bets
For too many years I have mulled over what is the best approach to staking. In truth, it's a very subjective question as what is right for one is completely wrong for another. What I would say, from a personal point of view, is that it's too easy to imagine that, somewhere, if only we could find it, awaits a diamond-encrusted whizzbang of a formula that truly excels all others. Whether such a mythical staking plan exists is a matter of debate, however, most punters have questioned their reasoning when hitting a lean winning spell.
My approach is to keep betting simple. I can remember questioning the merits of how much to stake as the last horse enters the stalls too many times. Thoughts of: 'Shall I bet £50 or £500 on this selection' are never a good idea but strangely they can happen all too easily. And why is it you can guarantee the £50 bet cruises to an easy win while the £500 flounders in the mud. And why oh why is it that you bet a bucket load on the favourite and your lucky shilling on the outsider, just because it is a big price. The psychology of betting makes fascinating reading as I believe to a certain extent that everyone thinks very much alike on these points.
So what is 'best'? I feel the most important aspect of gambling is that you feel happy and confident with your lot. That is to say, it works for you. Importantly, I am not saying that with particular reference to betting but your complete approach. I have found a way that works for me. I have a laid back approach and my way of self assessment is that I feel happy that my style of betting suits my personality. There is plenty to stress about at the best of times and if you feel anxious before a bet is struck you have to start to question what will bring about a calming influence other than a bucket of herbal tea!
In many ways I don't believe there is a right or wrong answer to staking. However, for me, I know that it is very important to have an answer to a question. Even though it may sound crazy, I bet level stake whether my selection is a hot favourite or a 150/1 outsider. My justification for this is that the shorter priced winners will fund these more speculative bets and when one of them wins, and they often do when your horse catches a glint of that 'lucky shilling', then I am going to win big. How many times can you remember feeling the rage and frustration of having a small wager on a horse you really fancy just because it's a big price? I know for a fact that level stake has made a positive difference to my betting however illogical it may seem at times.
The point of this blog is that it questions how we think. It doesn't matter if I am right, wrong or indifferent. Who I am I to say what works or doesn't work for you? I guess what I am saying is that we can all learn something from that old bloke who lives down the road and looks like a tramp but once gained a PhD in knowing a bloody sight more than you imagined. What's important is that sometimes a single sentence makes us stop for a moment and ponder our habitual ways of 'not thinking'. So this season I will be betting level stake come rain, shine or eternal rainbow. The only exception will be when betting on the big two-year-old sales races or group events featuring numerous runners. I like these events as I search for the speculatively-priced 'good thing' although one of ten may win. However, these smaller wagers will still feature a level stake for this given race type.
My approach is to keep betting simple. I can remember questioning the merits of how much to stake as the last horse enters the stalls too many times. Thoughts of: 'Shall I bet £50 or £500 on this selection' are never a good idea but strangely they can happen all too easily. And why is it you can guarantee the £50 bet cruises to an easy win while the £500 flounders in the mud. And why oh why is it that you bet a bucket load on the favourite and your lucky shilling on the outsider, just because it is a big price. The psychology of betting makes fascinating reading as I believe to a certain extent that everyone thinks very much alike on these points.
So what is 'best'? I feel the most important aspect of gambling is that you feel happy and confident with your lot. That is to say, it works for you. Importantly, I am not saying that with particular reference to betting but your complete approach. I have found a way that works for me. I have a laid back approach and my way of self assessment is that I feel happy that my style of betting suits my personality. There is plenty to stress about at the best of times and if you feel anxious before a bet is struck you have to start to question what will bring about a calming influence other than a bucket of herbal tea!
In many ways I don't believe there is a right or wrong answer to staking. However, for me, I know that it is very important to have an answer to a question. Even though it may sound crazy, I bet level stake whether my selection is a hot favourite or a 150/1 outsider. My justification for this is that the shorter priced winners will fund these more speculative bets and when one of them wins, and they often do when your horse catches a glint of that 'lucky shilling', then I am going to win big. How many times can you remember feeling the rage and frustration of having a small wager on a horse you really fancy just because it's a big price? I know for a fact that level stake has made a positive difference to my betting however illogical it may seem at times.
The point of this blog is that it questions how we think. It doesn't matter if I am right, wrong or indifferent. Who I am I to say what works or doesn't work for you? I guess what I am saying is that we can all learn something from that old bloke who lives down the road and looks like a tramp but once gained a PhD in knowing a bloody sight more than you imagined. What's important is that sometimes a single sentence makes us stop for a moment and ponder our habitual ways of 'not thinking'. So this season I will be betting level stake come rain, shine or eternal rainbow. The only exception will be when betting on the big two-year-old sales races or group events featuring numerous runners. I like these events as I search for the speculatively-priced 'good thing' although one of ten may win. However, these smaller wagers will still feature a level stake for this given race type.
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