Selling and Claiming race alert!

As part of my general studies I cut and paste all of the two-year-old 48-hour race declarations as they can be a mine of information. Not only are they interesting because they give ample time to consider the likely protagonists of any given race, they also identify anomalies such as jockey changes between a stable's first and second string and even jockeys' changing mounts from one stable to another. Clearly these points have to be considered with an open mind as there may be a number of reasons for such conflict. However, this information is interesting as it gives an indication of what a trainer or jockey may have in mind - to a point where it suggests their mount has a greater chance of winning.

One particularly interesting angle is to review the 48-hour declarations for two-year-old Selling and Claiming races when juveniles are making their debuts. The reason why this is so informative is that many do not actually run in these events but find themselves running in maiden or auction maiden events at a later date. The point being, that unless you make a conscious decision to note these individuals, you are very unlikely to realise that they have been entered to run at this lower grade. Now I am not saying conclusively that every juvenile entered to run in a Selling or Claiming event is a hopeless case with little hope of attaining success beyond that level. From our studies of group-entered juveniles we have seen a number of juveniles win at Selling level and actually contest group races. However, this is far from the norm and to all purposes is very unlikely. The vast majority of juveniles entered for Selling and Claiming races, which actually run in maiden races on debut, soon return to this lower level.

Over the past few years I have seen a number of juveniles following this pattern and surprisingly many are based with the larger more successful trainers such as M. Channon (see photo), P. D. Evens, B. Meehan to name a few. What is even more interesting is that because of their significance, especially within two-year-old racing, these juveniles are often priced at relatively short odds. Clearly they are priced with the trainer's general success in mind rather than the specific horse which features such conflicting status: being entered for a Selling/Claiming race but running in a maiden. I have noticed many juveniles following this pattern who fail to show they are anything beyond a plating horse.

Clearly this freely-available data can highlight the trainer's thoughts in a way that few punters could ever hope to glimpse. In the same way that group-entered two-year-olds may bestow a greater level of ability in winning a race, juveniles entered at such lowly levels may additionally suggest that the world may not be their oyster. For this reason, I will note these juveniles when they feature such conflicting entries.

Keep an eye open for the Selling and Claiming ALERT!